VIX telling us the correction is over?

15 mar 2022

For the last two months as this recent stock market correction has continued I have been watching the VIX closely for timing signals.

Normally, VIX rises quickly due to increase volatility and "fear" as the stock market makes new lows. An interesting divergence developed on the 2/24/2022 S&P 500 low which saw the VIX fail to make a higher high than VIX of the 1/24/2022 market low. The divergences do not stop there as I have noticed the VIX lows increasing rather than falling off quickly suggesting sustained "fear" in the market.

That has changed today. Last night I noticed the 33.18 level which is a 50% Retracement from the recent 3/8/2022 high on the VIX. Today's rally coincides with a test and hold of this VIX resistance. Should this VIX resistance hold the volatility could fall implying a rise in the S&P 500 and an end to the recent stock market correction.

18 mar 2022

Uwaga

I become more convicted that the correction is over as VIX has recaptured 26 and continues to go lower.