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EAGLE Strategy - $USDTRY: Keeping A Close Watch On E.A.G.L.E.:
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2018-08-10 - USDTRY: Keeping A Close Watch On E.A.G.L.E.:
Traders,
Can you count how many times we got burnt onUSDTRY, waiting for a movement that occurred in multiples of the expected forecast, or one that simply turned around? I can: Two too many.
In this case, I want to highlight a few areas that are worth looking as we wait for a probable reversal at the highlight range, namely:
1 - 6.7302
AND
2 - 6.6694
This range is referred to as a strong Bearish Entrenchment, in which reversal are expected to occur IF and ONLY IF price is meant to reverse at this level (per data determined by CROW Code). Here, the assumption is that a reversal is afoot, so we want to test this sensitive area, which will act as a lithmus test for me, you and anyone getting in the habit of using this method.
First, this area is determined as a narrow band at approximately the top 4th of the high-to-most-recent bottom. Estimate a 4th of that height, and draw a narrow band above and below this estimated level.
Second, for this level to be valid and raise suspicion of a reversal therein, wait for price to rally and stomp within the range. This is the time when I like to enter an aggressive counter-trend position. Here, the trend is UP, so I would simply enter a FULL SHORT Trade Opp position. Why FULL? Simply because this would represent the smallest exposure I would EVER get in such a short trade opportunity were price to move adversely and hit the SL, defined as the highest-high attained by price in the frame.
UUSDTRY/M15:
COMPONENTS OF A DESCENT:
The targets that I derive out of the CROW Code are typically associated with foreseeable price behavior. This is not the case all the time, but most of the time.
TG-1 & TG-2 - The Last Bullish Entrenchment:
For instance, targets TG-1 and TG-2 are most often associated with a significant pushback, so much so that some traders familiar with TG-1 and TG-2 will often chose to take profit upon validation of TG-1 when no pushback occurred at TG-1, then wait for a break below TG-2 for re-entry towards the other targets.
TG-3, 4, 5 - The Pass-Throughs:
By contrast, TG-3, 4 and 5 are pass-through targets, where some price behavior may occur, but at much less the frequency than what is seen with the first two targets.
For instance, TG-4 would at time be associated with a deeper push-back than would occur at TG-5, but as long as the pushback remains less than 0.384-Fib deep from the prior leg, then there is no reason to expect that an aggressive, early reversal is afoot ... Stay a while longer for TG-5.
The Ultimate Target, TG-u - Risk of Reversal:
Most recently, I came up with an "ultimate target", which is the level most often associated with a reversal, or at least a deep retracement, which I would define as deeper than 0.618-Fib of the entire move down.
That level is one that is the most difficult to trade, simply because once all numerical targets (TG-1, 2, 3, 4, 5) have been hit, there is a sense that price could no longer go any further. This is especially true when a 5-wave count ends at or near TG-5.
However, I have been surprised most often than not with this target, and a retrospective wave count would often reveal that, although TG-5 may have corresponded to the terminal level of a 5th wave, concluding an impulse wave, a Flat would throw its wave-B and surpass that last level. Another observation also shows that while the impulse concluded at a 5th wave, it was only defining wave-A of a larger and yet to complete Elliott Wave Zig-Zag (ZZ), in which wave-C would push a bit further and justify TG-u.
In any case, TG-u is where the grit of trading is found, as it takes nerves of steel to stay the course, or much more as I do, I simply set-and-forget.
As an aside, I have chosen PURPLE as the color of TG-u, as it is the bruising and nose-bleeding that it imparts psychologically during deep decline or advances, respectively.
NOW, WHAT TO DO:
Using the steps that I will define below, simply get into the habit of checking whether price will move in your forecast direction.
The simplest method would be to define a TOP and a BOTTOM, where TOP is the highest high achieved by price, whereas the BOTTOM is the presumed temporary base formed by the recent decline in the chart.
Finally, ENTER SHORT upon breach of BOTTOM. This would often be a conservative entry, compared to an aggressive entry define by E.A.G.L.E.
If instead, price breaks above SL, then you would get out with a solid rational and very little loss, using an objective strategy that you can now reapply once price appears to reverse within an EAGLE range.
USDTRY/M5: Looking At A Potential A-B-C Correction Into EAGLE:
OVERALL:
Get in the habit of testing your top, where a reversal might occur. To recapitulate:
1 - Define a narrow width from the highest-high to the recent low, from which price may likely be forming a correction.
2 - Said correction should move in a 3-wave form towards the narrow band, or "Bearish Entrapment" in the case of an expected decline.
3 - Enter upon touch-validation of the lower band, or if very aggressive, wait for price to hit the top band, then enter a SHORT position.
4 -Make sure to apply the firmest of discipline by letting go of the trade IF price closes above the SL. Do not even wait for a "BACA" event, or for price to Break-Across and Close Across". Smply get out upon the mere crossing of the SL. Here, SL is the TOP of the price action in the chart, at 6.7996.
5 - MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRADE: Seek a target that is STRUCTURAL, that is a target that would correspond to a prior level where price has consolidated. The best method here is to define the center of that consolidation and project it forward as a target. The center is what I have defined in the past as Nodal Core.
6 - MOVING AGAINST THE TRADE: In case of retracement, as may occur at TG-1 or TG-2, look for price spikes that occurred on the "other side" of the counter-advance". Here, the trade expects price to go DOWN. So, look for spikes that occurred as price was moving UP. In the attached chart, I have pointed out to such a spike which occurred on the other side of the wall, hence the name I give to these events: "Transmural", or literally "across the wall".
In a future strategy, I will share a method called AFT, or Aggressive Forwards Trading. This strategy, as with all of the other ones that I teach, is NOT a revelation of the CROW Code. I am only sharing with you all of the means and methods that I have developed over time for successful, stress-freetrading.
By stress-free trading, I am referring to methods that tell you WHEN to enter, WHEN to rethink and WHEN to take profit.
The strategy that I have explained above aims to do just that. It tells you WhEN to enter (E.A.G.L.E. range), WHEN to rethink your position (SL, TG-2, TG-4), and WHEN to exit (TG-2, TG-5 and TG-u).
E.A.G.L.E. stands for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
USDTRY: Keeping A Close Watch On E.A.G.L.E.:Traders,
Can you count how many times we got burnt on
USDTRY, waiting for a movement that occurred in multiples of the expected forecast, or one that simply turned around? I can: Two too many.In this case, I want to highlight a few areas that are worth looking as we wait for a probable reversal at the highlight range, namely:
1 - 6.7302
AND
2 - 6.6694
This range is referred to as a strong Bearish Entrenchment, in which reversal are expected to occur IF and ONLY IF price is meant to reverse at this level (per data determined by CROW Code). Here, the assumption is that a reversal is afoot, so we want to test this sensitive area, which will act as a lithmus test for me, you and anyone getting in the habit of using this method.
First, this area is determined as a narrow band at approximately the top 4th of the high-to-most-recent bottom. Estimate a 4th of that height, and draw a narrow band above and below this estimated level.
Second, for this level to be valid and raise suspicion of a reversal therein, wait for price to rally and stomp within the range. This is the time when I like to enter an aggressive counter-trend position. Here, the trend is UP, so I would simply enter a FULL SHORT Trade Opp position. Why FULL? Simply because this would represent the smallest exposure I would EVER get in such a short trade opportunity were price to move adversely and hit the SL, defined as the highest-high attained by price in the frame.
UUSDTRY/M15:
COMPONENTS OF A DESCENT:
The targets that I derive out of the CROW Code are typically associated with foreseeable price behavior. This is not the case all the time, but most of the time.
TG-1 & TG-2 - The Last Bullish Entrenchment:
For instance, targets TG-1 and TG-2 are most often associated with a significant pushback, so much so that some traders familiar with TG-1 and TG-2 will often chose to take profit upon validation of TG-1 when no pushback occurred at TG-1, then wait for a break below TG-2 for re-entry towards the other targets.
TG-3, 4, 5 - The Pass-Throughs:
By contrast, TG-3, 4 and 5 are pass-through targets, where some price behavior may occur, but at much less the frequency than what is seen with the first two targets.
For instance, TG-4 would at time be associated with a deeper push-back than would occur at TG-5, but as long as the pushback remains less than 0.384-Fib deep from the prior leg, then there is no reason to expect that an aggressive, early reversal is afoot ... Stay a while longer for TG-5.
The Ultimate Target, TG-u - Risk of Reversal:
Most recently, I came up with an "ultimate target", which is the level most often associated with a reversal, or at least a deep retracement, which I would define as deeper than 0.618-Fib of the entire move down.
That level is one that is the most difficult to trade, simply because once all numerical targets (TG-1, 2, 3, 4, 5) have been hit, there is a sense that price could no longer go any further. This is especially true when a 5-wave count ends at or near TG-5.
However, I have been surprised most often than not with this target, and a retrospective wave count would often reveal that, although TG-5 may have corresponded to the terminal level of a 5th wave, concluding an impulse wave, a Flat would throw its wave-B and surpass that last level. Another observation also shows that while the impulse concluded at a 5th wave, it was only defining wave-A of a larger and yet to complete Elliott Wave Zig-Zag (ZZ), in which wave-C would push a bit further and justify TG-u.
In any case, TG-u is where the grit of trading is found, as it takes nerves of steel to stay the course, or much more as I do, I simply set-and-forget.
As an aside, I have chosen PURPLE as the color of TG-u, as it is the bruising and nose-bleeding that it imparts psychologically during deep decline or advances, respectively.
NOW, WHAT TO DO:
Using the steps that I will define below, simply get into the habit of checking whether price will move in your forecast direction.
The simplest method would be to define a TOP and a BOTTOM, where TOP is the highest high achieved by price, whereas the BOTTOM is the presumed temporary base formed by the recent decline in the chart.
Finally, ENTER SHORT upon breach of BOTTOM. This would often be a conservative entry, compared to an aggressive entry define by E.A.G.L.E.
If instead, price breaks above SL, then you would get out with a solid rational and very little loss, using an objective strategy that you can now reapply once price appears to reverse within an EAGLE range.
USDTRY/M5: Looking At A Potential A-B-C Correction Into EAGLE:
OVERALL:
Get in the habit of testing your top, where a reversal might occur. To recapitulate:
1 - Define a narrow width from the highest-high to the recent low, from which price may likely be forming a correction.
2 - Said correction should move in a 3-wave form towards the narrow band, or "Bearish Entrapment" in the case of an expected decline.
3 - Enter upon touch-validation of the lower band, or if very aggressive, wait for price to hit the top band, then enter a SHORT position.
4 -Make sure to apply the firmest of discipline by letting go of the trade IF price closes above the SL. Do not even wait for a "BACA" event, or for price to Break-Across and Close Across". Smply get out upon the mere crossing of the SL. Here, SL is the TOP of the price action in the chart, at 6.7996.
5 - MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRADE: Seek a target that is STRUCTURAL, that is a target that would correspond to a prior level where price has consolidated. The best method here is to define the center of that consolidation and project it forward as a target. The center is what I have defined in the past as Nodal Core.
6 - MOVING AGAINST THE TRADE: In case of retracement, as may occur at TG-1 or TG-2, look for price spikes that occurred on the "other side" of the counter-advance". Here, the trade expects price to go DOWN. So, look for spikes that occurred as price was moving UP. In the attached chart, I have pointed out to such a spike which occurred on the other side of the wall, hence the name I give to these events: "Transmural", or literally "across the wall".
In a future strategy, I will share a method called AFT, or Aggressive Forwards Trading. This strategy, as with all of the other ones that I teach, is NOT a revelation of the CROW Code. I am only sharing with you all of the means and methods that I have developed over time for successful, stress-freetrading.
By stress-free trading, I am referring to methods that tell you WHEN to enter, WHEN to rethink and WHEN to take profit.
The strategy that I have explained above aims to do just that. It tells you WhEN to enter (E.A.G.L.E. range), WHEN to rethink your position (SL, TG-2, TG-4), and WHEN to exit (TG-2, TG-5 and TG-u).
E.A.G.L.E. stands for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Uwaga
UPDATE - USDTRY - 26 AUG 2018:Traders,
Price reached TG-1 = 5.9393, defined this past 10 AUG 2018 as forecast.
Also, as forecast, price rallied up to "Transmural Spike" level, allowing price to define the first leg of a now on-going correction (a-b-c wave).
Overall forecast remains intact here, as the next expectation is a deep correction into EAGLE.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Uwaga
TECH-NOTE - USDTRY - 26 AUG 2018:Traders,
There are TWO very discreet, but no less important details to pay attention to in the chart.
The FIRST one pertains to the tentative Elliott Wave pattern pointing the way. The SECOND offers a reasonable level from which to cautiously abandon a corrective rally.
FIRST - Look for the internal count of waves i, iii and v. Note that in the upper left corner of the chart, a narrowing geometry, tethered within a 5-point outline (i-ii-iii-iv-v) is formed by three motive waves i, iii and v, as well as 2 corrective waves ii and iv.
Note also that while such pattern in Elliott Wave principle is described as a Diagonal, ONLY this particular one can exist as a LEADING DIAGONAL, by the mere nature of its internal wave count in waves i, iii and v, each containing an internal motive construction of 5 waves.
In contrast to Ending Diagonal, which are found at the end of an impulse (5th wave with internal 3-3-3-3-3) or at the end of a correction (wave-c), and sometimes comparable to leading diagonal with their own internal 3-3-3-3-3 count), a LEADING Diagonal with such an internal (5-3-5-3-5) can only exist at the beginning of a significant advance, such as 1st wave of an impulse, or 1st wave (wave-A) of a Zig-Zag correction (not a flat though, as Flats have 3-3-5 as internal counts, in contrast to ZZ that hold 5-3-5).
So, the important point here is that IF this tentative Elliott Wave pattern is indeed a Leading Diagonal, then this market is suggesting that once a a-b-c correction completes, it is very likely to bring price to lower-lows, in line with the CROW Code forecast targets.
SECOND: Note that the a-b-c correction that commenced off of point-v (low), moves as a 3-point (wave-a), and is now presumed to completd a 5-points symmetrical geometry.
If this triangle is true, then price can only be tolerated down to, but not below point-A of the A-B-C-D-E aforesaid symmetrical geometry (RED arrow). If it did, it would simply invalidate this internal geometry, but would allow the trader to devine other appropriate patterns that would still fit in the a-b-c correction, whose point-c is yet to manifest its destiny (one which the CROW Code would suggest a fate at the EAGLE range ... Possible or not, it has yet to disprove our incredulity).
I make no fault of the CROW to prove me wrong, so long as I trade its ways in the most cautious and suspicious way. I do not command the targets, nor do I simply imagine them.
They are generated out of a method that I discovered in the most casual but fatigued circumstance, after years of researching what motivates price to do what it does. Only once I leaned back in my chair, it appeared, staring back at me with a pattern that, if known, would most likely appear to be as a grin.
Let's wait and see what this price does. I have no heart, emotion or will in what price has to do in its aleatory affairs. I can only use a shoe that fits me, one that gives me balance when walking across high beams, and buoyancy once in dark waters.
Cheers.
David
Uwaga
UPDATE - USDTRY - 30 AUG 2018:Traders,
Original price forecast commenced at the top, at which time a decline was called - This decline hit TG-1, from which a natural pushback occurred, triggering an interim forecast.
Said interim forecast called for a lower-high target, which has now been hit.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
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