asferruzzi

USDMXN trend reversal idea

Short
FX:USDMXN   Dolar USA / Peso Meksykańskie
RSI has made a bearish divergence on this pair indicating momentum of the recent uptrend is weakening.
RSI has made a new technical downtrend.
Recent inflation forecast show Mexico's inflation to almost halve over the next 12 months which is generally good for the currency.
Also, the interest rate differentials are massively in favour of the Peso.
The US is Mexico's largest trading partner and the dollar at the moment is weakening. Inflation is forecast as stable for the US.
Is the reversal signal and indication that institutions are rebalancing their portfolios and buying the Peso?
I am bearish on this pair, however I would wait for a pullback to a fib level before entering short.
Exit when the bearish trend shows signs of weakening.
Potential risk/reward is good.
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