Quarterly Overview - USD/JPY 1D Chart
2017 Q2 Summary
As it was forecasted, the US Dollar gained ground against the Japanese Yen in the last quarter. However, it occurred in a large range with huge volatility. The pair bounced between levels close to the 107 mark at the start of the quarter and reached up to the 114 mark. However, the movements were still in the dominant long term descending channel pattern. There is one rather interesting aspect, which must be noted. In the last month of the quarter the currency exchange rate surged after suffering a decline in May. The reason for the rebound must have been a medium scale ascending pattern. That means that one can draw a support line between the low levels of April and June. This support line is highly likely to hold ground during the eventual fall of the US Dollar against the Yen.
2017 Q3 Outlook
As it was mentioned above in the last quarters summary, a medium term trend line will play the role of support. Although that fact needs to be taken into account, the possibility that it will change the direction of the pair is unlikely. The pair still remains in the massive ascending pattern, the trend line of which can be seen in bold on the lower side of the chart. The long term descending channel is still heading for that trend line, and this process might take up to a year. Meanwhile, in regards to the next quarter, the smaller scale situation needs to be looked at. First of all the upper trend line of the long term channel will be providing resistance and push the pair lower. Secondly, the 200-day SMA will be a constant hinderer of momentum in both directions, as the pair dances around the moving level of significance. Third is the factor of the mentioned medium term trend line, which will provide support. All in all, it seems that a triangle pattern might form, which will at one point will be broken during a break out to the downside.
As it was forecasted, the US Dollar gained ground against the Japanese Yen in the last quarter. However, it occurred in a large range with huge volatility. The pair bounced between levels close to the 107 mark at the start of the quarter and reached up to the 114 mark. However, the movements were still in the dominant long term descending channel pattern. There is one rather interesting aspect, which must be noted. In the last month of the quarter the currency exchange rate surged after suffering a decline in May. The reason for the rebound must have been a medium scale ascending pattern. That means that one can draw a support line between the low levels of April and June. This support line is highly likely to hold ground during the eventual fall of the US Dollar against the Yen.
2017 Q3 Outlook
As it was mentioned above in the last quarters summary, a medium term trend line will play the role of support. Although that fact needs to be taken into account, the possibility that it will change the direction of the pair is unlikely. The pair still remains in the massive ascending pattern, the trend line of which can be seen in bold on the lower side of the chart. The long term descending channel is still heading for that trend line, and this process might take up to a year. Meanwhile, in regards to the next quarter, the smaller scale situation needs to be looked at. First of all the upper trend line of the long term channel will be providing resistance and push the pair lower. Secondly, the 200-day SMA will be a constant hinderer of momentum in both directions, as the pair dances around the moving level of significance. Third is the factor of the mentioned medium term trend line, which will provide support. All in all, it seems that a triangle pattern might form, which will at one point will be broken during a break out to the downside.
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