Possible longs on the Swissy...
Weekly gain/loss: - 46 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.9691
Although weekly price remains buoyed above the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.9639, the bears made an appearance last week, and thus could force the unit back down to the said weekly Quasimodo.
The view from the daily timeframe shows price trading between the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level and a daily supply base coming in at 0.9825-0.9786. Of particular interest here is the daily supply has managed to hold price lower once already on the 30th May, so it is certainly not a zone one should overlook, even though weekly price is trading nearby a support!
Looking at Friday’s movement on the H4 chart, the 0.97 handle was challenged and eventually consumed during the later hours of the US segment. Fortunately for the bulls, however, June’s opening level at 0.9680 held steady and produced a small end-of-day correction going into the closing bell. Bolstering this monthly level we have the following structures:
• A H4 channel support line taken from the low 0.9613.
• A H4 AB=CD (black arrows) 127.2% ext. at 0.9675 drawn from the high 0.9770.
• A 61.8% Fib support at 0.9692 taken from the low 0.9640.
Our suggestions: Entering into a long position at current price is tempting. Be that as it may, there are two cautionary points to consider:
1. By entering into a long position, you will effectively be buying into the 0.97 handle.
2. While H4 confluence is strong at current price, the higher-timeframe structures show little support.
Our team will not be looking to trade long from current price UNTILL we have witnessed a decisive close above the 0.97 handle. Our impression is that a move above 0.97 will show buyer intent, and at least drag the H4 candles back up to the H4 sell zone we talked about last week at 0.9774/0.9750. Ideally though, we’d be eyeing the H4 supply above here at 0.9825-0.9801 as a final take-profit area should we manage to secure a long position, as it sits within the upper edge of the daily supply mentioned above.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.97 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
Weekly closing price: 0.9691
Although weekly price remains buoyed above the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.9639, the bears made an appearance last week, and thus could force the unit back down to the said weekly Quasimodo.
The view from the daily timeframe shows price trading between the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level and a daily supply base coming in at 0.9825-0.9786. Of particular interest here is the daily supply has managed to hold price lower once already on the 30th May, so it is certainly not a zone one should overlook, even though weekly price is trading nearby a support!
Looking at Friday’s movement on the H4 chart, the 0.97 handle was challenged and eventually consumed during the later hours of the US segment. Fortunately for the bulls, however, June’s opening level at 0.9680 held steady and produced a small end-of-day correction going into the closing bell. Bolstering this monthly level we have the following structures:
• A H4 channel support line taken from the low 0.9613.
• A H4 AB=CD (black arrows) 127.2% ext. at 0.9675 drawn from the high 0.9770.
• A 61.8% Fib support at 0.9692 taken from the low 0.9640.
Our suggestions: Entering into a long position at current price is tempting. Be that as it may, there are two cautionary points to consider:
1. By entering into a long position, you will effectively be buying into the 0.97 handle.
2. While H4 confluence is strong at current price, the higher-timeframe structures show little support.
Our team will not be looking to trade long from current price UNTILL we have witnessed a decisive close above the 0.97 handle. Our impression is that a move above 0.97 will show buyer intent, and at least drag the H4 candles back up to the H4 sell zone we talked about last week at 0.9774/0.9750. Ideally though, we’d be eyeing the H4 supply above here at 0.9825-0.9801 as a final take-profit area should we manage to secure a long position, as it sits within the upper edge of the daily supply mentioned above.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.97 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
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