The USD/CAD pair started the week on a subdued note, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drifting into the midrange on Monday. As the trading week kicked off, both the Canadian and US markets were quiet due to the Labor Day holiday, resulting in a notable lack of momentum in the currency pair. However, key events scheduled later in the week are expected to bring volatility back into play, keeping USD/CAD traders vigilant.
From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair appears to have reacted to a well-defined demand area, offering potential bullish opportunities. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders are overwhelmingly bearish on the CAD, with sentiment levels even more negative than those seen in December 2023—a period that was followed by a significant market reversal. This bearish sentiment, combined with the identified demand area, suggests that the conditions are ripe for a long setup in USD/CAD.
Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to announce its latest rate decision this week, with markets widely expecting a quarter-point rate cut. This decision could have a significant impact on the CAD, particularly if the BoC delivers any surprises. Meanwhile, on the US side, the economic calendar is filled with key data releases, including the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures throughout the week, all leading up to the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
With these developments on the horizon, the USD/CAD pair is likely to see increased volatility. Traders should keep a close eye on the BoC's rate decision and the US economic data, as these events could provide further direction for the pair. For now, the technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a potential bullish opportunity in the USD/CAD as the week unfolds.
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