1/29/25 - $uber - Fud is a PnL killa. Bot moar.

29 sty

1/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: UBER
Fud is a PnL killa. Bot moar.

- at this pt, the market is still hung up on Elon's robotaxi
- u know what gets killed first? the donut called CVNA, that's the pair everyone's missing but back on topic
- 4Q beat and raise
- 5% fcf yields, growing mgns, 15% top line growth
- nvda partner
- the "layer 2" rotation from AI that everyone wanted to play with their favorite B2B enterprise software co y day even if they all trade >10x sales (have fun learning that one that hard way)
- these guys r not going anywhere
- rotated some of the NXT ST wins this AM into cash... and now i'm buying the dip on uber.
- alas who knows, but downside here probably 10-15%, upside 20-30% (in a YE context) so risk/reward is good
- majority of my exposure remains the 2027 ITM leaps.

be well.

V

31 sty

Zlecenie aktywne

gary gets it...

x.com/hoomansv/status/1885309408131113089

5 lut

Uwaga

Quick comment here on how i'm thinking about the quarter/ the conf call and how i'm trading my position today:

1/ analysts overly concerned about the USD and FX impacts. look the USD remains strong, probably gets stronger, but trying to time this or overly concern yourself for it (see inflection pt below on underlying trends), i think is missing forest for trees and probably not worth your time as a bottoms up investor. that said, mkt seems to care and when this does reverse 2H... will be tailwind.

2/ dara talked about accelerating trends. the adoption of uber is undeniable. more rides per customer. subscription/ premium service accelerating +5 mm QoQ - awesome. really not much to dislike here. the underlying looks A+

3/ robotaxi. the 800 lb gorilla. again i think dara keeps answer this correctly, we will invest, we will partner, there are a lot of "ifs" and "ands" for others, and we think we can check most of the boxes for WHEN this happens in a multi-year context and we'll be there. agree. mkt could be hung up on this for a long time. but meanwhile they continue to roll out waymo and partner w a ton of others worldwide.

4/ valuation remains reasonable. look. the stock ran the last two days. it's giving back some of this move. totally normal for a guide that is probably conservative in this tape where the market is quite frankly not rewarding anyone for not crushing and raising (nxt from my book, pltr - god bless, or stuff like nflx or even spot come to mind)

5/ so many of you (in the DMs) know the ST run had me taking some of my short-term exposure off the table but still packing a lot of LT heat. i'll probably hang tight if the stock is in the down 6 to down 3 territory. might trim around the edges if it goes for flat or s/t. i don't think it's a green day - sorry. but if the stock pukes some of the leverage it was packing into the quarter and we find ourselves down double digits, i'm adding to the LT stack (rn my weapon of choice is the $50 strike jan '27s).

all in all. not the reaction i was looking for. but by no means a bad quarter, and nothing changes fundamentally from my POV. i don't love how the tape is looking... so i remain cash heavy and it's hard to even own the "obvious" stuff - in my book that's nxt, btc, uber and to a smaller degree tsm. i continue to carry mini shorts on a bunch of memes, that i roll, but mostly cash remains my hedge - a better call option on vol in this tape.

so that's that. hope u guys have a good rest of the day and week. lmk if you spot anything i missed!

V

7 lut

Uwaga

nobody could be bothered to think for themselves. now here we are, taking profits off the top.
anyone want to guess what i'm buying?
better margins, better ROI, smaller cap... rhymes with REXtracker
i'm probably going to stop selling UBER here, i'm back to a comfy 15% LT Position (from a monster 30% position into results). it's been a good trade. hopefully rides higher. i'm happy to risk manage from here, the """"easy"""" money has been made as the plebs like to say.

have a good weekend. don't spend it all at once.
and do your porty a favor... grab some NXT if you do take profs.

most of all ENJOY. until the next one!

V