THE WEEK AHEAD: LYFT, UAL, MGM, DAL, CNX, SLV, GDXJ
EARNINGS:
LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction.
Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58.
You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31.
I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... .
CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play.
EARNINGS AFTERGLOW:
There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%:
UAL: 20.8%
MGM: 17.7%
DAL: 17.7%
CNX: 17.6%
WYNN: 16.9%
PINS: 16.1%
ROKU: 16.0%
BYND: 15.8%
SNAP: 15.7%
BA: 15.3%
SQ: 15.2%
AMD: 15.1%
LUV: 15.1%
I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED:
SLV (70/81/19.9%)
GDXJ (24/62/15.6%)
GDX (24/43/12.8%)
XOP (11/48/12.7%)
EWZ (18/43/11.2%)
Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call).
Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle.
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
Most of the fun has bled out ... :
IWM (25/30/7.3%)
QQQ (25/28/7.2%)
EFA (17/21/4.8%)
SPY (15/22/5.1%)
LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction.
Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58.
You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31.
I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... .
CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play.
EARNINGS AFTERGLOW:
There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%:
UAL: 20.8%
MGM: 17.7%
DAL: 17.7%
CNX: 17.6%
WYNN: 16.9%
PINS: 16.1%
ROKU: 16.0%
BYND: 15.8%
SNAP: 15.7%
BA: 15.3%
SQ: 15.2%
AMD: 15.1%
LUV: 15.1%
I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED:
SLV (70/81/19.9%)
GDXJ (24/62/15.6%)
GDX (24/43/12.8%)
XOP (11/48/12.7%)
EWZ (18/43/11.2%)
Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call).
Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle.
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
Most of the fun has bled out ... :
IWM (25/30/7.3%)
QQQ (25/28/7.2%)
EFA (17/21/4.8%)
SPY (15/22/5.1%)
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