TSLA Observations based on September 2022 Monthly Close
TSLA failed to close the month in a position which would suggest positive movement.
TSLA is currently caught within 2 areas of price consolidation.
Consolidation Range 1 is the larger of the two, it is currently 11 bars in length and the range is between: 206.86 – 414.50
Consolidation Range 2 is the smaller and tighter range, it is current 5 bars in length and the range is between: 206.86 – 318.50 (111.64 points)
The monthly bar which has formed is a Lower High – Lower Low to the previous bar with a close in the lower 20% of the bar, this now has the probability of 81.19% of another Lower High – Lower Low being generated in October.
The monthly range was 262.47 – 313.80 or 51.33, the 12-month average due to 100 point monthly swings currently is 91.31, 62% of the range is 56.43.
Using the 62% value of the average, a suggested range for the following month potentially could be: 225 – 282
The 11 period stochastic (11 periods is the length of the consolidation range), the stochastic has returned to bearish after 2 months of bullish signaling. The stochastic has also returned to below 30 suggesting that is may challenge it’s 11 period low (206.86).
A follow thru of the monthly low (81.19% probability) of 262.47 can trigger the potential for a downside target of 230.
A reversal (41% probability) and moving above 313.80 could mean a potential target for late October – early November of 347.74
A bar forming with a lower high and higher low (being engulfed by the bar generated in the month of September) is a 22.47% probability.
These are just observations and probabilities based on historical data.
TSLA is currently caught within 2 areas of price consolidation.
Consolidation Range 1 is the larger of the two, it is currently 11 bars in length and the range is between: 206.86 – 414.50
Consolidation Range 2 is the smaller and tighter range, it is current 5 bars in length and the range is between: 206.86 – 318.50 (111.64 points)
The monthly bar which has formed is a Lower High – Lower Low to the previous bar with a close in the lower 20% of the bar, this now has the probability of 81.19% of another Lower High – Lower Low being generated in October.
The monthly range was 262.47 – 313.80 or 51.33, the 12-month average due to 100 point monthly swings currently is 91.31, 62% of the range is 56.43.
Using the 62% value of the average, a suggested range for the following month potentially could be: 225 – 282
The 11 period stochastic (11 periods is the length of the consolidation range), the stochastic has returned to bearish after 2 months of bullish signaling. The stochastic has also returned to below 30 suggesting that is may challenge it’s 11 period low (206.86).
A follow thru of the monthly low (81.19% probability) of 262.47 can trigger the potential for a downside target of 230.
A reversal (41% probability) and moving above 313.80 could mean a potential target for late October – early November of 347.74
A bar forming with a lower high and higher low (being engulfed by the bar generated in the month of September) is a 22.47% probability.
These are just observations and probabilities based on historical data.
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