Expansion of broader market

16 lip 2024

It’s been a while here since my Bitcoin bottom analysis in December’22.
As mentioned, every time inflation tops - the stock market gets excited and rallies.
Interest rates have reached their initial peak. The market has been assuming for a year that the era of restrictive monetary policy will soon come to an end and that we will see dovish rate cuts and money printers again.

The SPX is at all time high but only a few stocks are pushing it, which is a major signal. Investors worry about weak market participation because it makes the market vulnerable. Currently the top 10 biggest stocks in the S&P 500 contributed to 77% of the index's total return in H1. That is the second highest ever reading of that number. Only time it’s been higher was in 2007.

When many stocks participate in a rally, it provides a strong foundation. In times of economic uncertainty and risk aversion, the market has consolidated into few large cap companies (NVDA AAPL MSFT GOOGL AMZN META). However, when there‘s optimism about the economy and people want to take risk on smaller caps and growth, we see the whole market expand together.

Optimism about the whole economy is needed. Not only large cap companies but RUT needs to be breaking out into new all-time highs. There is going to have to be a triggering event, a spark that gets set off and that’s what we are currently waiting for.

Last week we saw the first sign of rotation…


For BTCUSD, it’s not the halving but the expansion in broader markets that sends crypto with all the other risk-on equity assets higher. There is no doubt that we will have a crypto bullrun without the Russell2000 breaking out into new ATHs.
So is the market going to extend or not?
It has been a mandatory requirement for each of the past bullruns 2013, 2017, 2021 that expansion and breath opens throughout the market. But the scary thing: GOLD broke out, which is not the typically behavior of Gold when expansions and risk-taking occur.

Rising precious metals is a concerning red flag of the economy and we should hope for more ranging behaviour in SILVER and Gold before we go to expected 110$+ and 2800$+ predicting the future what lies economically ahead of us. Indicating the FED is no longer in control of the situation, with market being concerned of the stability of the system and waiting for inverted yield curve and unemployment rate to jump into recession as a product of their policy.


Getting back to the current Crypto Market:

I informed about this OTHERS in speaker keynotes in Germany last year and posted on X(Twitter) the overall Altcoin bottom in October’23.



BTCUSD 3 months sideways after the halving isn’t unusual for us to frustrate people and test their patience.
Looking into Google Trends BTC Isn’t on people’s radar yet and on-chain indicators signal strong comparison to 2017.


Even BTC.D and USDT.D are showing weakness, which is bullish for the overall market.


With liquidation event (highest since FTX Dec’22) on 05th of July and Fear and Greed Index back to 26 (lowest since Dec’22) we got our bottom. With Mt. Gox fear and Germany actually selling their BTC reserves we got our news catalyst.
Based on historical data, we can argue that buying after a big liquidations flush proves to be an interesting strategy, especially if you think that we are in a bull market.

Altcoins are forming a bottom formation in this region indicating possible impulsive wave 3 beginning in August.




At the end of 2012, 2016 and 2020 market ramped up after the US elections were done. Election years end with expansion. All that is needed now is for the safe haven, the DXY, to break below the level of 104, leading to rotation in risk-on small caps.
We have reached that time window of when broader market expansions actually did take place. And what usually happens whenever you finally enter that you are going into it with a little fear as people are scared and wrong-footed by it, if it were to show up.

This is the moment we‘ve all been waiting for. This is the moment you put all the years of hard work into. Everything has lined up. It’s time. More sleepless nights ahead. Traditional markets are seeing a final parabolic blow-off top in a decades-long bull cycle.

14 sie 2024

Uwaga

With trillions leaving the stock market over the past two weeks due to fears of global recession, the VIX hit 65 - a level only seen in the past three decades: during the C-19 crash in March 2020 and the financial crisis in late 2008. Even 1billion in crypto futures have been liquidated.

Since then, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply onchain metric increased rapidly and we got a strong buy signal flash, a Hash Ribbons Blue Ball on the weekly BTCUSD chart, something that has happened only once a year on average over the past 15 years.

The high reversal buy volume in Bitcoin on August 5th has already structurally completed the crash like in 2020. Bitcoin sits still above its 50-week moving average bullmarket support.

I wouldn’t wait for further indicators.
It’s time to buy. Exciting times ahead.

27 lut

Uwaga

Although we have reached the initial TOTAL3 price target here and had a small run, we are still far from overall thrill and greed. Still no expansion of broader market through macro breath.

After analyzing charts over 100h and sleepless last days, I have a high conviction the new bottom is in. The Next BTCUSD leg up will push ETHUSD to all time highs and first real altseason along.
In the last 3 weeks sentiment has capitulated with liquidation events, extreme fear and "No altseason happening, this time is different". Most have given up on the idea of an altseason while market tops tend to occur in an environment in which Altcoins are popping off left and right and total euphoria is in the air - not fear and indecision.

The Bank of Canada initially started a pause in interest rate hikes and announced in January that it would end QT. Other central banks will now follow suit again. Currently I am just waiting for GOLD to pause its rally to leave room for RUT risk assets to break out to the upside and finally push BTC.D lower. The strong on-chain data comparison to the 2017 annual rally remains and the DXY is already showing weakness similar to that seen at the beginning of the last Donald Trump period.



ETHBTC will move quickly once the bottom is in.

Every cycle, when Altcoins are lagging Bitcoin you should be most bullish, because some time capital is going to rotate.
For now, the wall of worry continues, let's keep our fingers crossed.
We have two Altcoin waves left before the 4-year cycle ends with a blow-off top.

11 mar

Uwaga

Tremendous amount of fear spread across all markets and all indicators. This is what happens when just a few assets have been holding the whole thing up. Trump knows there is nothing in the short term to stop the highly concentrated tech unwind. Once the unwind is done, market breadth broadens out.

BTCUSD Finally CME futues gap 77k fully filled.

DXY peaked with an impulsive downward move, while Global M2 Money Supply liquidity is moving upwards.

Higher.

3 kwi

Uwaga

Following the beginning of US tariffs we are once again experiencing extreme times of uncertainty, worry and concern.
Stocks, DXY, Precious Metals and Yields are down today. Seems like this news event is now building the bottom with divergences in the market.
Bitcoin has already held up well in recent weeks.

Let the rotation in traditional markets begin.

16 lip

Uwaga

Current indicators:
- Unemployment rate still flat
- Deflation
- FED rate cuts in 2025 anticipation
- M2 Money Supply and Global liquidity higher
- DXY down
- Gold temporary top and Copper/Gold ratio bottom
- S&P500 and Nasdaq all-time high breakout
- Coinbase, Robinhood and Bitcoin Mining stocks already moving
- Bitcoin all-time high breakout
- Total2 and Total3 heavily undervalued placed above Bitcoin
- ETHBTC ratio bottom
- Altcoins clear weekly wave 1-2 and massive divergences at the bottom
- On-chain data strong, while no social metrics crypto attention yet

What's next?
- U.S. ISM PMI above 50
- Russel2000 all-time high expansion of broader market
- BTC.D finally breaks down
- Altcoins parabolic rotation in the most impulsive volume-strongest wave 3
- Euphoric return of retail in the next months

You are not bullish enough.

6 wrz

Uwaga

When equities break out, liquidity flows and crypto becomes the high-beta beneficiary. In 2013, 2017 and 2021 breadth opened with all the indices at the same time, taking the whole market with it. This is the first time, since Bitcoin was invented, it has taken this long for that to happen. The stockmarket consolidated into major caps, and the breadth of the market never opened, unlike past 4-year cycles, which reiterates once again why this crypto cycle has been so difficult. Everything is one big trade - Nail macro with the coming rising second inflation cycle and you nail risk-on and crypto market.

Every previous Bitcoin top was preceded by an overvalued $RUT.
The current small-cap rally has significantly more momentum than the failed 2024 breakout; this rally is unstoppable and not even giving an entry opportunity.
With a potential breakout here, a prolonged risk taking period should start. So far, each time, at least 1 year from when Russell2000 breaks out into a new all-time high.

ETHBTC found its bottom and ETHUSD has already swept a new four-year all-time high, but mass euphoria and retail attention have yet to return.
A look at this TOTAL3ES/ETH chart clearly shows that Ethereum has never outperformed other Altcoins for such a long period of time. In each cycle, this circumstance led to a rotation and large gains in short periods for Altcoins, bringing retail investors back into the cryptocurrency market.
The weekly BTCUSD blue Hash Ribbon signal flashed again - historically, it resulted in an avereage return of 87%.
Now Ethereum has negative funding rates again - the actual breakout into price discovery comes next, that's when risk appetite starts to rise and we see Altcoins finally in the spotlight.

Below are some interesting altcoin charts. Targets are always adjusted to the Mcap chart (USD has inflationary coin supply).
LTC XLM XMR DOT SOL DOGE ADA SHIB SCUSD ZRXUSD DENTUSD GALAUSD CHZUSD

Just waiting for the very last correction to be completed.
In Q1 2026, we should see the Altcoin wave 3 top, and 7 months later, with Bitcoin, a possible wave 5 top for Altcoins that have been lagging at this point.

So it begins.