MARKETS week ahead: June 5 – 10
Last week in the news
The debt-ceiling saga is over, as expected, which was perceived positively by markets. Now the focus is back on the question whether the FED will raise interest rates in June or it will leave the decision for July`s meeting. Both EU and US equity markets were closed in green on Friday, which was one of the best trading days since January this year. At the same time, the crypto market was traded relatively flat, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly above
27K, and Ether is struggling to sustain 1.9K.
The US President Joe Biden addressed the public on Friday, noting that he will sign the debt-ceiling bill on Saturday in order to avoid “economic crisis and an economic collapse”. The bill was adopted by the US Senate on Thursday, coming only a few days before the so-called X-day, which was set by the US Treasury for June 5th. Markets re-gained optimism after the news regarding the resolution of the debt-ceiling negotiations, and swiftly switched attention to some old topics. Nonfarm payrolls grew in May by 339K, more than the market estimate of 190K. The employment data in the US are continuing to be strong despite the monetary measures taken by the FED during the previous period. At the same time, data for May show that the average hourly earnings rose less than estimated by the markets, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7% in May, from 3.5% previously. Analysts put into question whether the FED will continue to hike interest rates in June. Still, even if they pause during the next FOMC meeting, there is some probability that they will continue with rate hikes in July.
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 61% of economists are expecting a recession to occur within the next 12 months. At the same time, 93% of the corporate CEOs are preparing for the forthcoming recession within a period of 12 to 18 months, as per a recent survey. Such expectations however, do not collide with current macroeconomic data in the US, where the jobs market and business earnings show strong resilience.
Oil producers gathered around OPEC+ will meet on June 4th in Vienna. They will discuss topics related to further oil production policy. The supply-demand for oil has been pretty volatile during the previous period, where one of the OPEC+ measures was to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day in April. As per some unconfirmed news, the decreased output might continue due to lower demand from China.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting claims from the Apple customers on their struggle to withdraw their funds from Apple Savings accounts, especially amounts higher from 100K. As reported, the money has been withheld by Goldman Sachs in order to pass anti money laundering procedures. Many argue that such a practice is absurd considering that Apple Savings account is a new product and that all funds were transferred from traditional banking accounts.
Crypto market cap
The debt-ceiling deal has been accomplished and the US Senate approved it during the previous week. The US President Biden officially signed the document on Saturday, which relieved markets from fears over potential US default on its obligations, set for June 5th. The markets perceived positively such a development and swiftly turned to some quite old topics related to the further US monetary policy moves. Currently, the main question is related to whether the FOMC will decide to increase interest rates by 25 bps during the June or July meeting. The latest job figures show that the job market is still strong, but wages increases slowed down as well as inflation data. This supported the opinion of some analysts that the Fed might skip June rate increases and leave it for the July meeting. Although equities continue to gain, both in the US and EU, still the crypto market is lagging behind, with a third flat week in a row. Total crypto market capitalization was modestly increased during the previous week by 2%, adding 24B to total cap. Major coins on the market participated with 80% in this increase. Daily trading volumes remained decreased but steady around
40B on a daily basis. Market is at this moment certainly on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a clear signal in order to move to one side. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 46%, where it has added a total 351B to the market cap.
The major coins on the market participated by 80% in the total crypto market capitalization increase during the previous week, while altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. Bitcoin was leading the market, adding MUN:10B to its market cap or almost 2% compared to the previous week. Ether followed BTC with an increase of almost 4% or 8.7B. XPR also had a good week, as a reaction on new Securities Clarity Act, presented in the US Congress, increasing its market cap by 10.6% or 2.6B. Some of coins which finished the week in green in a relative terms were Filecoin, with a surge in value of 10.6% w/w, Litecoin was up by 10%, while Tron and Maker were both up by 6.5%. Few coins were traded in red during the week, like Monero, which was down by 2.5% w/w, Theta lost 1.1%, while Polygon was down by around 2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes compared to the week before, where Solana, Polkadot, Filecoin and Stellar gained by 0.2% new circulating coins during the week.
Crypto futures market
Positive sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the futures prices. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the week, but ETH outperformed BTC in a relative term. BTC`s both short- and long-term futures gained around 1.5% on average. Futures maturing in December this year were lastly traded 1.17% higher from the week before, finishing the week at a price of $27.625. Futures maturing in December next year were up by 1.5% w/w and ended the week at price of $28.370, and finally above 28K.
ETH short term futures were up by almost 4% on a weekly basis. Longer term futures surged by some 3.5% on average, with December 2023 last traded at price of $1.896 and December 2024 at price $1.943. This represents an improvement from the week before, as prices managed to move above 1.9K after three weeks traded below this level.
The debt-ceiling saga is over, as expected, which was perceived positively by markets. Now the focus is back on the question whether the FED will raise interest rates in June or it will leave the decision for July`s meeting. Both EU and US equity markets were closed in green on Friday, which was one of the best trading days since January this year. At the same time, the crypto market was traded relatively flat, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly above
27K, and Ether is struggling to sustain 1.9K.The US President Joe Biden addressed the public on Friday, noting that he will sign the debt-ceiling bill on Saturday in order to avoid “economic crisis and an economic collapse”. The bill was adopted by the US Senate on Thursday, coming only a few days before the so-called X-day, which was set by the US Treasury for June 5th. Markets re-gained optimism after the news regarding the resolution of the debt-ceiling negotiations, and swiftly switched attention to some old topics. Nonfarm payrolls grew in May by 339K, more than the market estimate of 190K. The employment data in the US are continuing to be strong despite the monetary measures taken by the FED during the previous period. At the same time, data for May show that the average hourly earnings rose less than estimated by the markets, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7% in May, from 3.5% previously. Analysts put into question whether the FED will continue to hike interest rates in June. Still, even if they pause during the next FOMC meeting, there is some probability that they will continue with rate hikes in July.
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 61% of economists are expecting a recession to occur within the next 12 months. At the same time, 93% of the corporate CEOs are preparing for the forthcoming recession within a period of 12 to 18 months, as per a recent survey. Such expectations however, do not collide with current macroeconomic data in the US, where the jobs market and business earnings show strong resilience.
Oil producers gathered around OPEC+ will meet on June 4th in Vienna. They will discuss topics related to further oil production policy. The supply-demand for oil has been pretty volatile during the previous period, where one of the OPEC+ measures was to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day in April. As per some unconfirmed news, the decreased output might continue due to lower demand from China.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting claims from the Apple customers on their struggle to withdraw their funds from Apple Savings accounts, especially amounts higher from 100K. As reported, the money has been withheld by Goldman Sachs in order to pass anti money laundering procedures. Many argue that such a practice is absurd considering that Apple Savings account is a new product and that all funds were transferred from traditional banking accounts.
Crypto market cap
The debt-ceiling deal has been accomplished and the US Senate approved it during the previous week. The US President Biden officially signed the document on Saturday, which relieved markets from fears over potential US default on its obligations, set for June 5th. The markets perceived positively such a development and swiftly turned to some quite old topics related to the further US monetary policy moves. Currently, the main question is related to whether the FOMC will decide to increase interest rates by 25 bps during the June or July meeting. The latest job figures show that the job market is still strong, but wages increases slowed down as well as inflation data. This supported the opinion of some analysts that the Fed might skip June rate increases and leave it for the July meeting. Although equities continue to gain, both in the US and EU, still the crypto market is lagging behind, with a third flat week in a row. Total crypto market capitalization was modestly increased during the previous week by 2%, adding 24B to total cap. Major coins on the market participated with 80% in this increase. Daily trading volumes remained decreased but steady around
40B on a daily basis. Market is at this moment certainly on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a clear signal in order to move to one side. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 46%, where it has added a total 351B to the market cap.The major coins on the market participated by 80% in the total crypto market capitalization increase during the previous week, while altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. Bitcoin was leading the market, adding MUN:10B to its market cap or almost 2% compared to the previous week. Ether followed BTC with an increase of almost 4% or 8.7B. XPR also had a good week, as a reaction on new Securities Clarity Act, presented in the US Congress, increasing its market cap by 10.6% or 2.6B. Some of coins which finished the week in green in a relative terms were Filecoin, with a surge in value of 10.6% w/w, Litecoin was up by 10%, while Tron and Maker were both up by 6.5%. Few coins were traded in red during the week, like Monero, which was down by 2.5% w/w, Theta lost 1.1%, while Polygon was down by around 2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes compared to the week before, where Solana, Polkadot, Filecoin and Stellar gained by 0.2% new circulating coins during the week.
Crypto futures market
Positive sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the futures prices. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the week, but ETH outperformed BTC in a relative term. BTC`s both short- and long-term futures gained around 1.5% on average. Futures maturing in December this year were lastly traded 1.17% higher from the week before, finishing the week at a price of $27.625. Futures maturing in December next year were up by 1.5% w/w and ended the week at price of $28.370, and finally above 28K.
ETH short term futures were up by almost 4% on a weekly basis. Longer term futures surged by some 3.5% on average, with December 2023 last traded at price of $1.896 and December 2024 at price $1.943. This represents an improvement from the week before, as prices managed to move above 1.9K after three weeks traded below this level.
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