Indeks S&P 500Short
Weekly Update: Expectations after such an impressive rally?
I remind in my updates periodically, that nothing clears up confusing-overlapping price action, like more price action.
Meaning sometimes, as an analyst, it can be difficult to forecast precisely what is playing out, until right before a pattern concludes. This current pattern off the October 2023 lows is one of those occurrences. Corrective waves can take on many shapes aside from a standard A-B-C retracement. As patterns mature, counts will change as more price action occurs providing additional clarity. The rally off the October 2023 lows has no particular definitive shape and started out in a overlapping manner. The application of Elliott Wave Theory is not magic, nor is it some sort of divine foresight. The forecasting of markets is reading into the human behaviors of crowds. Yes, most of the time, crowds act in predictable fashion…in contrast, other times, they do not reveal their ultimate intentions until the very end.
Currently below SPX 4818.62 the advance off the October 2022 low of 3491.58 remains a (B) wave retracement. The moment price breaches that level the ending diagonal pattern becomes the most valid conclusion. The problem I currently have with the ED pattern is this advance would fit best as just the a-wave of wave 5 in an ED. However, there are no rules governing this this pattern aside from each of the 5 waves must consist of 3 subwaves...to breach 4818.62 in direct fashion would provide that...so whereas I would expect this to be just the a-wave...the pattern would fulfill the minimum criteria of being complete.
So, we have very little clarity to speak of until we get a decline. The pathways forecasted are outlined above.
Meaning sometimes, as an analyst, it can be difficult to forecast precisely what is playing out, until right before a pattern concludes. This current pattern off the October 2023 lows is one of those occurrences. Corrective waves can take on many shapes aside from a standard A-B-C retracement. As patterns mature, counts will change as more price action occurs providing additional clarity. The rally off the October 2023 lows has no particular definitive shape and started out in a overlapping manner. The application of Elliott Wave Theory is not magic, nor is it some sort of divine foresight. The forecasting of markets is reading into the human behaviors of crowds. Yes, most of the time, crowds act in predictable fashion…in contrast, other times, they do not reveal their ultimate intentions until the very end.
Currently below SPX 4818.62 the advance off the October 2022 low of 3491.58 remains a (B) wave retracement. The moment price breaches that level the ending diagonal pattern becomes the most valid conclusion. The problem I currently have with the ED pattern is this advance would fit best as just the a-wave of wave 5 in an ED. However, there are no rules governing this this pattern aside from each of the 5 waves must consist of 3 subwaves...to breach 4818.62 in direct fashion would provide that...so whereas I would expect this to be just the a-wave...the pattern would fulfill the minimum criteria of being complete.
So, we have very little clarity to speak of until we get a decline. The pathways forecasted are outlined above.
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