The S&P 500 holds near 6,435, but the backdrop is shifting. Fed tone, liquidity, and sentiment are no longer aligned, leaving SPX caught between support and resistance.
1. Fed Model (AFDFM)
Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias.
Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend.
Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%.
Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%).
2. Liquidity (BML)
Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative.
TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash.
Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped.
3. Macro Risk Sentiment
Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45).
Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading.
Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher.
4. SPX Levels
Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200.
Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain.
Conclusion:
Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500.
Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
1. Fed Model (AFDFM)
Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias.
Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend.
Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%.
Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%).
2. Liquidity (BML)
Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative.
TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash.
Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped.
3. Macro Risk Sentiment
Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45).
Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading.
Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher.
4. SPX Levels
Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200.
Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain.
Conclusion:
Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500.
Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
TheRealMongoose
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TheRealMongoose
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.