The Secular Bull Market May Remain in Effect
It’s sometimes useful to view the market’s current position in the context of longer-trend trends. So today’s chart uses quarterly (3M) candles of the S&P 500 to examine multiyear secular bull markets.
First consider the secular bull run between 1982 and 2000. It lasted 76 quarters. If the current run began with the breakout above 1576 in 2013, a similar duration would place its conclusion in late 2030.
Second, as periods of accumulation, bull markets tend to follow relatively tight channels. (This differs from periods like 1968-1982 and 2000-2007, which featured sideways moves with some painful dives.)
The current bull run broke the bottom of its channel in March 2020 as pandemic lockdowns caused extreme panic. A QE-fueled overshoot to the top of the channel followed in late 2021. But in both cases SPX reverted to the longer-term trend.
Interestingly, last year’s pullback held the bottom of the same channel. Has the secular bull started another multi-quarter leg to the upside?
Finally, the current environment may resemble 1995. That moment also saw prices stumble as interest rates increased. But SPX held the channel and ended the century with a steady ascent.
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
First consider the secular bull run between 1982 and 2000. It lasted 76 quarters. If the current run began with the breakout above 1576 in 2013, a similar duration would place its conclusion in late 2030.
Second, as periods of accumulation, bull markets tend to follow relatively tight channels. (This differs from periods like 1968-1982 and 2000-2007, which featured sideways moves with some painful dives.)
The current bull run broke the bottom of its channel in March 2020 as pandemic lockdowns caused extreme panic. A QE-fueled overshoot to the top of the channel followed in late 2021. But in both cases SPX reverted to the longer-term trend.
Interestingly, last year’s pullback held the bottom of the same channel. Has the secular bull started another multi-quarter leg to the upside?
Finally, the current environment may resemble 1995. That moment also saw prices stumble as interest rates increased. But SPX held the channel and ended the century with a steady ascent.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
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