I'm not buying the Brian Niccol hype. SBUX is in trouble.

SBUX, CMG, YUM


This 24% jump in SBUX stock as a result of recent news of them hiring Brian Niccol seems a bit excessive. Sure he is a wonderful CEO and he has made significant improvements in both companies he has run, but this situation seems significantly different.

With CMG he was able to trim the fat and cut all costs possible while creating specialized food items people were willing to pay up for like carne asada, al pastor, and guac.

The situation with SBUX is very different. Their workforce demands more from their employer. It is no longer looked at as an entry-level job, people believe they are working for a company they can work up and develop in. In addition, what sets SBUX apart from other coffee shops like #Dunkindonuts and #TimHortons is the customization the customer has in the app and at the store. Every coffee chain has "specialty" and "seasonal" drinks. The only way I see he will be able to make a significant change is by automating the store as much as possible, but if he does this, will people still look at it as a local cafe they are going to sit down and enjoy a cup of coffee in? In addition, consumers are becoming more health conscious and they are likely to continue to decrease their spend on luxury-priced drinks filled with sugars. With inflation continuing to impact the consumer, a high-priced coffee is likely at the top of their cost-cutting list. With both the USA and China consumers feeling the heat, this company is likely to continue to feel the pain in both markets. If I were to guess, Niccols is going to slash projections previously made by upper management, and the stock will respond in a negative way.

With all that being said, the stock has recently shot through all of its moving averages and is now retesting the upper band of a previous negative channel. Once the Niccols hype starts to decrease, I can see this stock easily retesting the 200-day MA and 100-day MA.