QQQ (24 October)

QQQ is at the top of its 20d ±3 % envelope, a “momentum, but stretched” setup

• Expect minor cooling or sideways action early next week, then potential continuation toward $625-$628 once the moving average catches up
  

20d MA ~$605 is upward-sloping which confirms a healthy intermediate uptrend

• Envelope width is about 36 points (~6%), normal for a trending QQQ environment
  
• Price hugging the upper envelope means momentum is strong, but stretched
  
• In past rallies, when QQQ closed near or slightly above the +3 % band, it tended to consolidate or pull back toward the MA within 3-6 sessions, or trade sideways until the moving average "catches up"
  

Since May, you can see about 4-5 touches of the upper band

• Each touch was followed by a 1-2 % fade lasting a few sessions
  
• The moving average acted as dynamic support; deeper corrections only came after the slope flattened
  
• That rhythm is still intact so this looks like another case where bulls may pause, but not reverse
  

$618-$620

• Upper envelope resistance/overbought
  
• 55% chance of stall or mild fade
  

$610-$612

• First support (mean reversion)
  
• 30 % chance of retest
  

$600-$605

• 20d MA & lower-band base
  
• 15 % chance unless news shock
  

Bias is still bullish; trend intact above the 20d MA, but short-term is slightly overbought so expect digestion rather than acceleration

• Taking partial profits or tightening stops near +3% band often pays better than chasing new highs
  
• Theta decay accelerates if price chops sideways here, so shorter-dated calls can flatten out quickly
  
• Waiting for a dip toward $610-$612 offers a higher-reward entry aligned with the 20d MA