12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"
- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut
- but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing!
- what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg...
1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy
2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates)
3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive
4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent
5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress).
just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;)
stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have.
V
- but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing!
- what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg...
1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy
2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates)
3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive
4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent
5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress).
just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;)
stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have.
V
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