On the monthly chart, NZD/USD has been in a persistent bearish trend. The current monthly candle, one week old, is displaying bullish momentum, approaching the high from October, which coincides with the high from September. Daily Chart:
These two highs (October and September) represent key levels with substantial buying liquidity. For a bullish market confirmation, we need to see a break and a sustained hold above these levels. Last week's move led to overbought conditions on shorter timeframes (4-hour and 1-hour charts), suggesting potential short-term exhaustion. Interestingly, the daily chart RSI isn't overbought, standing at 67.94. It's sloping up strongly. In October, there was an RSI spike that reached the 70 line, followed by a price decline that broke previous swing points, indicating no change in market bearish dynamics. Change of Character (CHoCH):
CHoCH can be defined by the two swing highs from the previous two months. A bullish confirmation may occur if the price crosses above these levels and holds, signaling a shift towards a more bullish market flow. EMAs:
Last week, the price crossed above the 50-day EMA, but the 10-day EMA is still below the 20-day EMA. This suggests mixed short-term signals. Short-Term Expectations:
Given the recent overbought conditions, it's reasonable to expect a retracement, potentially back to the level of imbalance created during the initial push up on Wednesday. On the 4-hour chart, both RSI and MACD are notably overbought, which serves as a sell signal, suggesting it may be prudent to wait for a retracement before considering long positions. The 1-hour chart also shows an overbought RSI and a divergence, while the MACD is extremely overbought and showing signs of weakening with smaller green bars. On the daily chart, it's worth mentioning that the price from Friday filled the imbalance created during the significant decline on October 12.
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discord.gg/a7sfTVkgxc I’m part of a free Discord group where we help each other navigate the market and overcome trading challenges. It’s a friendly, supportive community, with members from around the globe.
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