Every stock or index moves as per laws of vibration or like a sinusoidal wave which is clearly seen on any oscillator like RSI or stochastic. The drop of NIFTY started in Oct 21 which can be easily seen RSI monthly chart, the move down happens like a ball bounce where first bounce came at Dec 21 which was evident on daily RSI levels between 40 and 30, the bounce rose till Jan 22 and like wise the drop and bounce can be seen till date. The down trend on monthly chart is evident and can be captured easily if the drop and bounce concept is understood. The bounces are erratic and brings in counter trends. Most lose money in capturing the counter trend. If one has to analyse the current situation market though in downtrend is preparing itself for a bounce. The basing on weekly charts is visible both on price and RSI. The basing structure which has to emerge is of double bottom or W on lower TF charts.
How far is going to be bounce? With every successive bounce the energy of stock gets dissipated and bounce levels should reduce as per laws of vibrations. The Feb bounce was of 900 points, March bounce was of 500 points. Once the price reach the pivot or previous base it should temporarily act as a spring base to infuse some energy in the bounce before the final drop takes place. So likely bounce is expected to be of thousand points forming a price pattern of head and shoulders. The evolution of price patterns can be correlated with vibration and ball bounce which can further be traced to human psychology. Why select price patterns are formed and repeated can be easily be forecasted, which was a major study of WD Gann. If one can build on his writings and study charts diligently one can easily crack the code. The so called irrationality of markets is not that wayward as it is assumed. If one can get in sync with the vibration and rhyme with the markets the world will be yours.
The entire move Oct 21 onwards can be encapsulated in a box and it is seen that there should be at least two touch bases before the price moves out of the box. I think Nicholas Darvas also betted on these boxes. Sometimes based on other extraneous factors price may come only half way and doesn't touch the base and moves up. Till the price is in the box its either in accumulation or distribution mode. If the price moves downward of the box one can say we are in recession and more pain is awaited. If it remains in consolidation for longer time with 2 or 3 touch base an explosive up move is contemplated. I feel that this consolidation should last till this year end unless there are some good geo political economic triggers.
If 15200 levels are violated then it will be mayhem as seen during COVID times. But all these violations are good buying opportunities. Every touch base is a buying or accumulating opportunity. The whole aim is to get the time and price cycle correct. One concentrates more on price cycle than on time cycle. One should go the dictum
To every thing there is a season,
and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, a time to die;
a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal;
a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose;
a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew;
a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate;
A time of war, and a time of peace.