12158 Weekly breakout
Trade Thesis
1. Technical Analysis
a) Triangle breakout
b) Weekly breakout
c) Monthly breakout
d) Consolidation breakout
e) vwap breakout
f) Positive volume spurt
g) TST Set up
2. Risk Analysis and Management
a) Personal risk tolerance level (PRL): Identify the personal comfortable risk based on dollar amount of total capital or on unemotional induction point.
b) The PRL should not exceed 5% per trade even in high convention stock.
c) Allow diversification across different asset to minimize the risk.
d) Define the optimal position sizing per stock and commonly used 1-2% risk on total capital.
d) Assess the trade viability during trade life cycle, such as overall stock specific news, market conditions, sectorial assessment or any major global scenarios.
e) Always use stop loss in place (SL).
3. Fundamental Analysis
a)PPFC (Parag Parikh Mutual fund) new addition on Sep 2024
b)Almost debt free organization
c)Maintaining healthy dividend payout
d)Consistently increasing profits but sales growth of last 3 quarterly is less and recently auto sales growth is increasing.
e)OPM% is above 10
f)Profit growth% is almost doubled in 2023 to 2024 fy years
g)Consistently increasing reserves
h)Positive cash flow
i)ROCE % is increasing and currently it is above 20
j)Increased FII and DII in last sep 2024
k) Societe Generale brought at 9988 on 25 Jan 2024 and hence 9988 forms critical FII and DII support zone.
4.Trading Mindset Requirements
a) You need dare to cut the losses, dare to follow discipline and dare to book profit at target 1 and target 2, because most common man is afraid of losses and book profit at random points (less holing capacity). Most business have frequent small losses, brokerages, consultant charges, exchange charges, govt.taxes, internet-electricity and manpower charges, slippages and wastages etc .
b) Continuous failure enhance and enlarged the image of failure in your mind by framing those disappointing experiences with emotion. As your subconscious archives and processes your memories as images, they are not assigned equal importance. Rather, your subconscious prioritizes peak emotional experiences.
c)If you are getting into the habit of mad and emotional, when you make error, mistake or failure trade, then you will increase the likelihood of making mistakes again due to emotional response attached to that habit. Any emotional reaction to the event in life are more memorable and repetitive.
d)The first step is to forget about all the ideas in your head about what is wrong and why you should be doing better. Become interested in what you can learn, and look at your
results as a nonjudgmental observer collecting and analyzing data.
1. Technical Analysis
a) Triangle breakout
b) Weekly breakout
c) Monthly breakout
d) Consolidation breakout
e) vwap breakout
f) Positive volume spurt
g) TST Set up
2. Risk Analysis and Management
a) Personal risk tolerance level (PRL): Identify the personal comfortable risk based on dollar amount of total capital or on unemotional induction point.
b) The PRL should not exceed 5% per trade even in high convention stock.
c) Allow diversification across different asset to minimize the risk.
d) Define the optimal position sizing per stock and commonly used 1-2% risk on total capital.
d) Assess the trade viability during trade life cycle, such as overall stock specific news, market conditions, sectorial assessment or any major global scenarios.
e) Always use stop loss in place (SL).
3. Fundamental Analysis
a)PPFC (Parag Parikh Mutual fund) new addition on Sep 2024
b)Almost debt free organization
c)Maintaining healthy dividend payout
d)Consistently increasing profits but sales growth of last 3 quarterly is less and recently auto sales growth is increasing.
e)OPM% is above 10
f)Profit growth% is almost doubled in 2023 to 2024 fy years
g)Consistently increasing reserves
h)Positive cash flow
i)ROCE % is increasing and currently it is above 20
j)Increased FII and DII in last sep 2024
k) Societe Generale brought at 9988 on 25 Jan 2024 and hence 9988 forms critical FII and DII support zone.
4.Trading Mindset Requirements
a) You need dare to cut the losses, dare to follow discipline and dare to book profit at target 1 and target 2, because most common man is afraid of losses and book profit at random points (less holing capacity). Most business have frequent small losses, brokerages, consultant charges, exchange charges, govt.taxes, internet-electricity and manpower charges, slippages and wastages etc .
b) Continuous failure enhance and enlarged the image of failure in your mind by framing those disappointing experiences with emotion. As your subconscious archives and processes your memories as images, they are not assigned equal importance. Rather, your subconscious prioritizes peak emotional experiences.
c)If you are getting into the habit of mad and emotional, when you make error, mistake or failure trade, then you will increase the likelihood of making mistakes again due to emotional response attached to that habit. Any emotional reaction to the event in life are more memorable and repetitive.
d)The first step is to forget about all the ideas in your head about what is wrong and why you should be doing better. Become interested in what you can learn, and look at your
results as a nonjudgmental observer collecting and analyzing data.
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