Falling PMI, a good indicator?
US PMI figures are falling from the peak 63.7 to 53.1, and many investors are concerned of a downturn. Its increasingly likely, but not yet...
You can see that many major SP500 market declines didn't occur until the PMI figure reached 50; May 1998 , Oct 2000, Oct 2007. The last was Sep 2019 and the market kept rallying until Feb 2020. The trend is certainly worrying but the US economy may need to contract for some time before the market panics to new lows.
You can see that many major SP500 market declines didn't occur until the PMI figure reached 50; May 1998 , Oct 2000, Oct 2007. The last was Sep 2019 and the market kept rallying until Feb 2020. The trend is certainly worrying but the US economy may need to contract for some time before the market panics to new lows.
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