WYCKOFF SHORT ON IP
My charts are setup initially to look for Wyckoff trend continuation patterns, such as re-accumulation and re-distribution, because in general it is better to trade "with" the trend rather than against it, but sometimes these patterns fail and lead to distribution, such as I think is the case for IP.
Ultimately it is tough to differentiate between a congestion (re-accumulation) pattern and a distribution pattern, if not impossible, until after the Sign of Strength (SOS). If there is a weak, low volume retest of the Spring (SP), then a continuation of the trend is more likely. But when the Spring (support) level is broken it then becomes the new ICE level indicating a strong chance of retesting the prior major support level. The entry we look for is a retest of this ICE level, known as Backing Up to the ICE (BUI), which is currently forming. Also, there is background weakness shown by a regular divergence at Secondary Test (ST) level, then increasing volume on the down wave to the Spring (SP) level, then hidden divergence at the Sign of Strength (SOS) level, then increasing volume on the Breaking the ICE down wave, and so far a weak rally back up to the ICE level.
Conservative entry would be a break of the Breaking The ICE (BTI) level, with initial stop above the swing high, initial target at the last major support level at $45.25, this gives a Risk:Reward ratio of 1:2.68, which is more than acceptable (generally greater than or equal to 1:2 is preferable, of course all traders are different and this is just my opinion).
Second possible entry would be after a new downtrend bar prints on the Weis Wave Indicator.
And finally, an aggressive entry would be the first LL bar during the BUI rally that we are currently in.
Note: there is a potential major support level at approx. $50, which has acted as significant resistance for approx. the last year. Also the major support level that is the target is also approx. the major support level of the trading range for the last year.
Ultimately it is tough to differentiate between a congestion (re-accumulation) pattern and a distribution pattern, if not impossible, until after the Sign of Strength (SOS). If there is a weak, low volume retest of the Spring (SP), then a continuation of the trend is more likely. But when the Spring (support) level is broken it then becomes the new ICE level indicating a strong chance of retesting the prior major support level. The entry we look for is a retest of this ICE level, known as Backing Up to the ICE (BUI), which is currently forming. Also, there is background weakness shown by a regular divergence at Secondary Test (ST) level, then increasing volume on the down wave to the Spring (SP) level, then hidden divergence at the Sign of Strength (SOS) level, then increasing volume on the Breaking the ICE down wave, and so far a weak rally back up to the ICE level.
Conservative entry would be a break of the Breaking The ICE (BTI) level, with initial stop above the swing high, initial target at the last major support level at $45.25, this gives a Risk:Reward ratio of 1:2.68, which is more than acceptable (generally greater than or equal to 1:2 is preferable, of course all traders are different and this is just my opinion).
Second possible entry would be after a new downtrend bar prints on the Weis Wave Indicator.
And finally, an aggressive entry would be the first LL bar during the BUI rally that we are currently in.
Note: there is a potential major support level at approx. $50, which has acted as significant resistance for approx. the last year. Also the major support level that is the target is also approx. the major support level of the trading range for the last year.
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