Short
Italy 10y BTP sell signal
Left panel - daily cash bond yield chart:
- Yield reversed up from Tenkan Sen. Supports are at 1,35 % (Kijun), 1,40 % forward Senkou B and 1,50 % previous local high (just above 100wma)
- Heikin-Ashi possible bullish signal, with haDelta cross above its SMA3 (= bearish for bonds). haOscillator is also located above zero line.
- MACD signal itself shows consolidation with swing bullish bias, but the indicator has developed a longer term positive divergence. Histogram ticks higher.
Right panel - BTP futures (yesterday close)
- Heikin-Ashi gives a sell signal in the Kumo, below Kijun Sen. haDelta is already below zero, haOscillator may follow if selling pressure on bonds remains.
- EWO is bearish
As bund shows signs of correction, BTP will react even more bearish. BTP/Bund spread is expected to widen further, pls see details in the previous post (link below)
New information: Italy announced to issue a new 50 year maturity bond! :-D LOL. I recommended on Twitter yesterday, they should do it in form of a zero coupon!
Strategy: Increase Italian 10y BTP short exposure outright, or in spread trade over Bund.
Again, please read all arguments in the previous post!
- Yield reversed up from Tenkan Sen. Supports are at 1,35 % (Kijun), 1,40 % forward Senkou B and 1,50 % previous local high (just above 100wma)
- Heikin-Ashi possible bullish signal, with haDelta cross above its SMA3 (= bearish for bonds). haOscillator is also located above zero line.
- MACD signal itself shows consolidation with swing bullish bias, but the indicator has developed a longer term positive divergence. Histogram ticks higher.
Right panel - BTP futures (yesterday close)
- Heikin-Ashi gives a sell signal in the Kumo, below Kijun Sen. haDelta is already below zero, haOscillator may follow if selling pressure on bonds remains.
- EWO is bearish
As bund shows signs of correction, BTP will react even more bearish. BTP/Bund spread is expected to widen further, pls see details in the previous post (link below)
New information: Italy announced to issue a new 50 year maturity bond! :-D LOL. I recommended on Twitter yesterday, they should do it in form of a zero coupon!
Strategy: Increase Italian 10y BTP short exposure outright, or in spread trade over Bund.
Again, please read all arguments in the previous post!
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