DAX30 - Quarterly Report
Zaktualizowano
DAX30, like most of the global Indices, has been trading within a Bull Market and an up-trend, ever since February 2016. The Bull Market trend has been labeled as Super-Cycle Wave (V) (black).
Bullish Cycle Wave I (green) began with early February 2016, covering 50% of the losses which occurred during 2015. This Bullish Swing was corrected by Cycle Wave II (green) with approx. 61.8% on the Fibonacci Retracements scale, also establishing a strong Support highlighted by the rising black trend-line.
The Bullish 5 Swings Sequence period between July 2016 and November 2017 represents the strongest up-trend and it has been labeled as Cycle Wave III (green). This Bullish Rally presents a classic Elliott Wave Extension within the Primary Wave 3 (blue) sub-wave.
Cycle Wave IV (green) commenced its Corrective Pattern in the beginning of November 2017 and ever since then, it has shown Complex Structures. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the Complex Corrective Patterns could be occurring because of the alternations between corrective cycles, if one is simple then the other would unfold as complex, in this case between Cycle Wave II (green) and Cycle Wave IV (green).
According to the current Wave Count, Cycle Wave IV (green) could be unfolding as a Complex WXY (purple) Primary Waves.
Primary W (purple) began the Bearish 3 Swings Sequence with Intermediate (A) (orange), which was followed by Intermediate (B) (orange), with a Complex Structure as well, due to the conflict between corrections and degrees.
Intermediate (B) (orange) finalized with DAX30 hitting a fresh all-time-high around the 13590.00 Levels.
The reaction at the 13590.00 Levels was instant. With VIX spiking, DAX30 lost approx. 1600 points in just one week. This Impulsive Bearish leg has been labeled as Intermediate (C) (orange), thus completing Primary W (purple).
Primary X (purple) unfolded as well with a 3 Swings Sequence, with a Leading Diagonal in Intermediate (A) (orange), a false break-out during its Intermediate (B) (orange) and an impressive Bullish Intermediate (C) (orange) wave. On the Fibonacci Retracement scale, Primary X (purple) managed to cover 78.2% of the entire losses caused by the VIX spike.
This Complex Pattern involves combinations of structures, hence the reason why Primary Y (purple) would not be out of the question.
Within Primary Y (purple), Intermediate (A) (orange) reversed sharply on the down-side and after that a correction began in Intermediate (B) (orange). The correction appears to be unfolding within a Rising Channel and the continuation levels for Impulsive Bearish Intermediate (C) (orange) would be located at or around the 13000.00 Levels.
Impulsive Bearish Intermediate (C) (orange) would be expected to commence at or around the 13000.00 Levels and it could even create a new yearly low, so it could complete the pattern and test the Strong Support trend-line (black).
Should DAX30 deliver the expected Bearish Impulse, then that would complete Primary Y (purple), but also the entire Cycle Wave IV (green), which would result in DAX30 possibly continuing with Cycle Wave V (green).
Cycle Wave V (green) would be expected to get Resistance at or around the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension of Primary Waves 1 & 2 (blue). The 14400.00 Levels also appear to be lining up with the 61.8% Golden Ratio and Fibonacci Extension of Cycle Wave III & IV (green).
Bullish Cycle Wave I (green) began with early February 2016, covering 50% of the losses which occurred during 2015. This Bullish Swing was corrected by Cycle Wave II (green) with approx. 61.8% on the Fibonacci Retracements scale, also establishing a strong Support highlighted by the rising black trend-line.
The Bullish 5 Swings Sequence period between July 2016 and November 2017 represents the strongest up-trend and it has been labeled as Cycle Wave III (green). This Bullish Rally presents a classic Elliott Wave Extension within the Primary Wave 3 (blue) sub-wave.
Cycle Wave IV (green) commenced its Corrective Pattern in the beginning of November 2017 and ever since then, it has shown Complex Structures. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the Complex Corrective Patterns could be occurring because of the alternations between corrective cycles, if one is simple then the other would unfold as complex, in this case between Cycle Wave II (green) and Cycle Wave IV (green).
According to the current Wave Count, Cycle Wave IV (green) could be unfolding as a Complex WXY (purple) Primary Waves.
Primary W (purple) began the Bearish 3 Swings Sequence with Intermediate (A) (orange), which was followed by Intermediate (B) (orange), with a Complex Structure as well, due to the conflict between corrections and degrees.
Intermediate (B) (orange) finalized with DAX30 hitting a fresh all-time-high around the 13590.00 Levels.
The reaction at the 13590.00 Levels was instant. With VIX spiking, DAX30 lost approx. 1600 points in just one week. This Impulsive Bearish leg has been labeled as Intermediate (C) (orange), thus completing Primary W (purple).
Primary X (purple) unfolded as well with a 3 Swings Sequence, with a Leading Diagonal in Intermediate (A) (orange), a false break-out during its Intermediate (B) (orange) and an impressive Bullish Intermediate (C) (orange) wave. On the Fibonacci Retracement scale, Primary X (purple) managed to cover 78.2% of the entire losses caused by the VIX spike.
This Complex Pattern involves combinations of structures, hence the reason why Primary Y (purple) would not be out of the question.
Within Primary Y (purple), Intermediate (A) (orange) reversed sharply on the down-side and after that a correction began in Intermediate (B) (orange). The correction appears to be unfolding within a Rising Channel and the continuation levels for Impulsive Bearish Intermediate (C) (orange) would be located at or around the 13000.00 Levels.
Impulsive Bearish Intermediate (C) (orange) would be expected to commence at or around the 13000.00 Levels and it could even create a new yearly low, so it could complete the pattern and test the Strong Support trend-line (black).
Should DAX30 deliver the expected Bearish Impulse, then that would complete Primary Y (purple), but also the entire Cycle Wave IV (green), which would result in DAX30 possibly continuing with Cycle Wave V (green).
Cycle Wave V (green) would be expected to get Resistance at or around the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension of Primary Waves 1 & 2 (blue). The 14400.00 Levels also appear to be lining up with the 61.8% Golden Ratio and Fibonacci Extension of Cycle Wave III & IV (green).
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