Long Term Low In The Pound

17 kwi 2017

I am of the opinion that the GBP is currently putting in a long term low against the USD, indicated by the potential rare triple bottom reversal pattern. It would of been nice to see the March low fall closer to the two previous lows in October and January, however it could still prove to be valid with a break and close above that 1.27ish area.

I think a degree of uncertainty has been removed with the triggering of Brexit and with a weaker USD across the board we will see a strong correction in the GBP. This will lead to a move out of the curernt range into a new one between 1.27 to 1.36 as the back and forth Brexit negotiations drag on.

I don't believe the EU will want the UK to leave the single market, but have to keep face in order to avoid contagion and therefore i think we will see both parties make concessions and strike a deal that will mutually benefit both.

Any and all views are appreciated

17 kwi 2017

Uwaga

This is the current pitchfork i am working with, together with the potential bull flag which completes at 1.285ish

18 kwi 2017

Uwaga

After the price action today and assuming no objection to the election tomorrow, i would guess we are now in a buy the dip / buy the rumour sell the news mentality in the GBP til June 8th

20 kwi 2017

Uwaga

This pitchfork is giving us some great levels to work with so far. I'm keeping an eye out for further bull flag formations across the GBP pairs and hoping for a pull back to the trend line and mid line of the fork to add to longs. It's also the 38.2% retracement of the last move. However i can see we are currently sitting on the Daily 200 EMA and might not make it there.