Mnuchin and Powell, remote work and the second wave

23 wrz 2020

The situation with the pandemic in the world is not improving: in a number of countries it is significantly worsening. Last week we wrote that Israel has already introduced a second lockdown and it is far from a fact that it will be an exception. The second wave is increasingly covering Europe, especially the UK. As a result, the UK government asks citizens to work from home, and if the situation does not begin to improve in the near future, a new lockdown may also be introduced in the country. According to one of the country's top scientific advisers, the number of new cases in the UK by mid-October may exceed 50,000 (so far, the number is 4,000). So, sells of EURUSD and GBPUSD look like a promising idea today in the FOREX.

In general, remote work is becoming a universal long-term phenomenon: many corporations, following the results of the first lockdowns, have come to the conclusion that this approach is cost-effective. Which, again, can radically change the current economic landscape in the world. In this light, for example, the return of demand in the oil market to pre-pandemic values becomes less and less likely, at least in the foreseeable future. According to Eurasia Group in 2020 global oil demand will decline by more than 10% from last year to about 90 million barrels per day (this will be the largest demand shock in the industry's history). So our recommendation to sell oil remains valid.

The pandemic continues to generate heightened economic uncertainty. In this regard, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were testified in Congress yesterday. Both have expressed cautious optimism that the US economy is recovering from the recession caused by the pandemic. But the situation remains uncertain and the economy needs additional help from the government. In general, their speeches did not bring anything radical new.

"Battery Day" for Tesla was not so successful (a decrease in the company's shares by 5% hints at this). On the one hand, the new batteries will help Tesla reduce the size of its cars by about 10% and increase their range by 56% (the total range will be about 800 km) and, in the future, bring the price down to $ 25,000. On the other hand, if all this becomes a reality, then not earlier than 2022.