GBPARS long could reach 650 faster than expected

28 cze 2023

Strategy bullish
trend trading
proper money and risk management

Fundamntals and Technicals:
Both on the sides of the GBP!

28 cze 2023

Uwaga

Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.

12 lip 2023

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Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

DXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61

Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.

Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.

13 lip 2023

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Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).

13 lip 2023

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Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%).

Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly
NZX Trades Slightly Higher
New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low
Argentina Indicators
Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23
Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23
Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23
Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23
Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23
Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23
Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23
Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22
Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22
The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.

14 lip 2023

Uwaga

The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

14 lip 2023

Uwaga

Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

16 lip 2023

Uwaga

China New Home Prices Flatten in June

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing prope

16 lip 2023

Uwaga

China New Home Prices Flatten in June

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing prope

17 lip 2023

Uwaga

Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.

China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.

Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum.
US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low
Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected
Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).

17 lip 2023

Uwaga

Most Latam currencies rise, Argentine peso touches historic low
Peru central bank decision due
Argentine peso hit record low of 512/dollar after CPI data
Peru extends state of emergency in key mining region
Guatemala's court excludes top party from election
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso hit a historic low in parallel market trading after inflation data.

Brazil's real

USDBRL
, (BRBY) and Chile's peso

USDCLP
rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with the dollar tumbling to its lowest since last April after U.S. inflation readings cemented bets of an imminent end to Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The Argentine peso (ARSB=) fell 0.9% in black market trading to a historic low of 512 pesos per dollar after data showed the monthly inflation rate stood at 6.0% in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 7.0%.

Inflation in the 12 months through June hit 115.6% in Argentina.

As the country struggles with an economic crisis, an Argentine delegation is meeting with the International Monetary Fund this week to renegotiate its $44 million loan.

Peru's sol

USDPEN
added 0.2%, holding near its strongest level since November 2020 ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day.

The country extended an emergency state for another 30 days along its main roadways, including a key mining corridor, as a new round of protests is expected to kick off next week.

Colombia's peso

USDCOP
rose 0.9%, touching a three-week high.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected.

"Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual."

The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday.

The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme.

Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows
The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013.

Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years.

Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential.

The Mexican peso

USDMXN
jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high.

Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso

USDCOP
by 0.8%.

Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso

USDCLP
added 0.7% and Peru's sol

USDPEN
rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday.

Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%.

The Brazilian real (BRBY)

USDBRL
gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high.

The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House.

Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates.

"Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard.

Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

World's largest meat packer JBS SA
JBSS3
jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan.

17 lip 2023

Uwaga

YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data

China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates

The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month.

Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data

Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon.
China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data

The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).

23 lip 2023

Uwaga

Trade is open