23//7/25 No FT Selling Again. Market in Breakout Mode

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jul 22) was an inside bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create follow-through selling, or if the market would trade higher and retest the July 18 high instead.
   
3. The market traded higher for the day, and the bears failed to get follow-through selling, again.
   
4. Previously, the bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 18).
   
5. They want a retest of the April high.
   
6. They see the pullback on Monday (Jul 21) as a retest of the breakout point (bear trend line).
   
7. They want the move to lack follow-through selling, like on July 7, July 11, and July 15. So far, this is the case.
   
8. The bulls need to create more bull bars to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
9. The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 18) and a trend channel line overshoot. They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
10. They hope that the recent 8-day small trading range will be the final flag of the move.
    
11. They want the market to reverse below the bear trend line and the July 14 high within 5 trading days.
    
12. If the market trades higher in the next few days, they want it to form a lower high or double top with July 18.
    
13. They were unable to create follow-through selling in the last three selloffs (July 7, July 11, and July 15). They failed to create follow-through selling again today (Jul 22). The bears are not as strong as they hoped for.
    
14. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher. August may be flat or slightly lower.
    
15. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
16. Export: Down 3% in the first 20 days.
    
17. The market is forming another triangle and an ii (inside-inside) pattern. The market is in breakout mode.
    
18. The bulls want a breakout above, while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
    
19. For tomorrow (Wednesday, July 23), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying and test near the July 18 high.
    
20. Or will the market form a breakout below the triangle and ii pattern instead?
    

Andrew