14/10/25 Can Bulls Create Strong Retest of Oct 9 High?

1. Monday’s candlestick (Oct 13) was a bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could create a follow-through bear bar, even if it is only a bear doji, or if the bulls would be able to completely reverse the Friday pullback instead.
   
3. The market traded lower to test the 20-day EMA, and the bears created some follow-through selling, albeit not yet strong (long tail below the candlestick).
   
4. The bulls got a retest near the August high (Oct 9).
   
5. They see the current move as a pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
6. They hope to get a retest of the October 9 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
7. They must create a strong breakout above the August high, accompanied by follow-through buying, to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
8. The bears see the recent (Oct 9) move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
   
9. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 9), a lower high major trend reversal, as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high.
   
10. They see the current move as a retest of the October 9 high and want it to form a lower high.
    
11. The bears must create consecutive bear bars to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
    
12. Production: SPPOMA's first 10 days increased up 6%.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: Oct up 9% for the first 10 days as per ITS.
    
15. For today (Tuesday, Oct 14), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the October 9 high in the next few days.
    
16. Or will the move lack sustained follow-through buying instead, stalling at a lower high?
    

Andrew