EUR/USD what price action to expect ahead?
In this post ill mention the new price range, what supports the downtrend?, and at what price the downtrend may be capped, and for what reasons?.
What supports the downtrend?
1- EU is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures if the U.K. fails to implement its post Brexit obligations.
2- U.S. Congress members agreed to $761.8 billion in new spending over 8 years, Senate passed $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's economic heft by bolstering American manufacturing and technology.
3- Germany government has extended financial support until the end of September as the fallout from Covid-19 persists for EU's largest economy even as infections ebb.
4- EU judges hit back a "declaration of war" from German court.
6- ECB speech " spread of virus continues to be a source of downside risks, too early to end PEPP, inflation risks, dovish stance, rising yields that hinders the economic recovery.
For what reasons the downtrend may be capped?
1- Fed is expected to be dovish despite the overheating economy and the high inflation risks that would put the U.S. at risk of political and economic disruption.
2- The NFP release which was seen less than forecasted and signs for the Fed's unachieved goal of unemployment.
3- Italy won more than 65 billion euros of orders for its sale of 10-year bonds, more than six times the amount on offer.
4- EU businesses are increasing in China and moving supply chains on shore.
5- EU approved vaccine passports.
What is the new price range?
- According to the new mixed fundamentals and as the inflation and central banker's decisions taking all the investors attention there are 2 likely scenarios to happen,
1- To hold exchange rate (1.21-1.22) till FED's interest rate decision (1.2050-1.2240), (THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN).
2- To hold exchange rate (1.20-1.21) till FED's interest rate decision (1.1960- 1.2150), (MEANS FAVORING THE DOLLAR ANYWAY, POSSIBLE BUT UNLKELY TO HAPPEN).
- IF THE FED HAPPENS TO BE HAWKISH THE DOWNTREND WILL GAIN STRENGTH AND WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1950 -
What supports the downtrend?
1- EU is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures if the U.K. fails to implement its post Brexit obligations.
2- U.S. Congress members agreed to $761.8 billion in new spending over 8 years, Senate passed $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's economic heft by bolstering American manufacturing and technology.
3- Germany government has extended financial support until the end of September as the fallout from Covid-19 persists for EU's largest economy even as infections ebb.
4- EU judges hit back a "declaration of war" from German court.
6- ECB speech " spread of virus continues to be a source of downside risks, too early to end PEPP, inflation risks, dovish stance, rising yields that hinders the economic recovery.
For what reasons the downtrend may be capped?
1- Fed is expected to be dovish despite the overheating economy and the high inflation risks that would put the U.S. at risk of political and economic disruption.
2- The NFP release which was seen less than forecasted and signs for the Fed's unachieved goal of unemployment.
3- Italy won more than 65 billion euros of orders for its sale of 10-year bonds, more than six times the amount on offer.
4- EU businesses are increasing in China and moving supply chains on shore.
5- EU approved vaccine passports.
What is the new price range?
- According to the new mixed fundamentals and as the inflation and central banker's decisions taking all the investors attention there are 2 likely scenarios to happen,
1- To hold exchange rate (1.21-1.22) till FED's interest rate decision (1.2050-1.2240), (THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN).
2- To hold exchange rate (1.20-1.21) till FED's interest rate decision (1.1960- 1.2150), (MEANS FAVORING THE DOLLAR ANYWAY, POSSIBLE BUT UNLKELY TO HAPPEN).
- IF THE FED HAPPENS TO BE HAWKISH THE DOWNTREND WILL GAIN STRENGTH AND WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1950 -
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.