EUR/USD tech report...
Weekly gain/loss: - 8 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.0690
Weekly opening price: 1.0721
Despite the pair ranging over 100 pips last week, EUR/USD prices are little changed. What is notable from a technical perspective, nevertheless, is the reaction seen from the long-term weekly trendline resistance (stretched from the low 0.8231), which consequently formed a strong-looking weekly selling wick. Providing that the bears remain in the driving seat here, the next downside objective on the weekly timeframe comes in at 1.0333-1.0502: a weekly support area that’s positioned directly below the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515.
While the weekly bears look to be in a good place right now, daily demand at 1.0589-1.0662 was brought into the picture on Thursday and remained balanced going into the week’s close. Be that as it may, it will take a decisive (daily) close above the nearby daily resistance at 1.0710 before our desk reports that the bulls may be gaining the upper hand.
A quick recap of Friday’s trade on the H4 shows that the bulls attempted to breach the 1.07 handle, following a lower-than-expected US advance GDP report. However, as you can see, price failed to sustain gains beyond this point and ended the day back below 1.07.
Our suggestions: In a nutshell, the nuts and bolts of this pair’s structure can be summed up as follows:
• Weekly action suggesting lower prices ahead.
• Daily flow reacting from demand, but has yet to prove itself by closing above neighboring daily resistance at 1.0710.
Taking into account that the this morning’s open gapped over 30 pips north this morning, bringing price back above the 1.07 boundary, we’ll likely see 1.07 tested as support in the next hour as the weekend gap looks to be filled. Levels of interest above 1.07 today are the H4 supply at 1.0765-1.0753 and the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.0796.
One could look for an intraday bounce from the H4 supply today, but be aware that the more attractive area for sells is seen around the H4 Quasimodo. Backing this level we have the 1.08 handle, a deep H4 88.6% Fib resistance at 1.0810, weekly resistance at 1.0819 (sits just above the aforementioned weekly trendline resistance) and finally there’s also a possible H4 AB=CD bearish pattern that tops out around 1.0838 which sports a converging 127.2% Fib extension.
With the above points in mind, buying right now is something we’d feel comfortable participating in. Neither would we feel all that great above selling from the aforementioned H4 supply. We will, nevertheless, keep a close eye on the above noted 1.08 region due to its connection with the higher timeframes.
Data points to consider: German prelim CPI. US personal spending and income (PCE index) figures set for release at 1.30pm and pending home sales at 3pm GMT.
Weekly closing price: 1.0690
Weekly opening price: 1.0721
Despite the pair ranging over 100 pips last week, EUR/USD prices are little changed. What is notable from a technical perspective, nevertheless, is the reaction seen from the long-term weekly trendline resistance (stretched from the low 0.8231), which consequently formed a strong-looking weekly selling wick. Providing that the bears remain in the driving seat here, the next downside objective on the weekly timeframe comes in at 1.0333-1.0502: a weekly support area that’s positioned directly below the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515.
While the weekly bears look to be in a good place right now, daily demand at 1.0589-1.0662 was brought into the picture on Thursday and remained balanced going into the week’s close. Be that as it may, it will take a decisive (daily) close above the nearby daily resistance at 1.0710 before our desk reports that the bulls may be gaining the upper hand.
A quick recap of Friday’s trade on the H4 shows that the bulls attempted to breach the 1.07 handle, following a lower-than-expected US advance GDP report. However, as you can see, price failed to sustain gains beyond this point and ended the day back below 1.07.
Our suggestions: In a nutshell, the nuts and bolts of this pair’s structure can be summed up as follows:
• Weekly action suggesting lower prices ahead.
• Daily flow reacting from demand, but has yet to prove itself by closing above neighboring daily resistance at 1.0710.
Taking into account that the this morning’s open gapped over 30 pips north this morning, bringing price back above the 1.07 boundary, we’ll likely see 1.07 tested as support in the next hour as the weekend gap looks to be filled. Levels of interest above 1.07 today are the H4 supply at 1.0765-1.0753 and the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.0796.
One could look for an intraday bounce from the H4 supply today, but be aware that the more attractive area for sells is seen around the H4 Quasimodo. Backing this level we have the 1.08 handle, a deep H4 88.6% Fib resistance at 1.0810, weekly resistance at 1.0819 (sits just above the aforementioned weekly trendline resistance) and finally there’s also a possible H4 AB=CD bearish pattern that tops out around 1.0838 which sports a converging 127.2% Fib extension.
With the above points in mind, buying right now is something we’d feel comfortable participating in. Neither would we feel all that great above selling from the aforementioned H4 supply. We will, nevertheless, keep a close eye on the above noted 1.08 region due to its connection with the higher timeframes.
Data points to consider: German prelim CPI. US personal spending and income (PCE index) figures set for release at 1.30pm and pending home sales at 3pm GMT.
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