Can we recover from the irresponsible messaging from the FOMC?
The answer to today's question is... I believe we can.
Once this excessive emotional sell off cools for a minute, I think cooler heads can prevail. I find it a bit ironic that of all Powell's messages, he had more dovish talk in this one and yet everyone only saw hawkish, when in the past he has been in my opinion very hawkish and people took the microscopic dovish words that they could. However, I go on a tirade about how irresponsible his messaging was yesterday with absolute mixed signals in his speech vs written guidance.
Anyways, as I said in my video, I took a loss on my trade last night of about $500. I went in again during this video at 3738, as I think we have a bit of a bounce back now today.
If you aren't interested in watching the video the trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3824 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Lower Low
1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low
12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As you can see, many of our trends past the 30m are higher lows, and calling for the market to come back up briefly to see where we head next. The 6hr was fascinating in that it signaled a downtrend almost exactly at where it had signaled an uptrend, allowing the possibility that the resistance of the trend line can now become the support, something that you see a lot in trends.
In terms of economic data today;
It will all be about the jobs reports coming out here in 30 minutes. Based on some other recent data, I believe we may see an increase in jobless claims, but time will tell.
As far as Earnings;
We have 150 companies left to report earnings, with a slew of medium sized companies coming in today. It is honestly too many for me to report on, but most companies have actually been beating expectations overall (a lowered expectation, but none the less). I know Starbucks is likely to post record profits and sales AMC.
Overall, with the election coming to a close, people trading over emotionally, and earnings season still here, I see us rallying back up to meet some of these trends we left behind. I'd expect a 30m uptrend without a doubt, and I think we will most likely see a 1hr and 2hr uptrend mark before we head lower at least.
I've noticed that the issue in my trading is that my shorter term sentiment tends to be accurate, but my short term sentiment (where I think we will get at the end of the day) is coming in mid day and then my medium term sentiment (where I think we get by the end of the week) is coming in by the close.
Those sentiments today are;
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bearish
As always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely.
Once this excessive emotional sell off cools for a minute, I think cooler heads can prevail. I find it a bit ironic that of all Powell's messages, he had more dovish talk in this one and yet everyone only saw hawkish, when in the past he has been in my opinion very hawkish and people took the microscopic dovish words that they could. However, I go on a tirade about how irresponsible his messaging was yesterday with absolute mixed signals in his speech vs written guidance.
Anyways, as I said in my video, I took a loss on my trade last night of about $500. I went in again during this video at 3738, as I think we have a bit of a bounce back now today.
If you aren't interested in watching the video the trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3824 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Lower Low
1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low
12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As you can see, many of our trends past the 30m are higher lows, and calling for the market to come back up briefly to see where we head next. The 6hr was fascinating in that it signaled a downtrend almost exactly at where it had signaled an uptrend, allowing the possibility that the resistance of the trend line can now become the support, something that you see a lot in trends.
In terms of economic data today;
It will all be about the jobs reports coming out here in 30 minutes. Based on some other recent data, I believe we may see an increase in jobless claims, but time will tell.
As far as Earnings;
We have 150 companies left to report earnings, with a slew of medium sized companies coming in today. It is honestly too many for me to report on, but most companies have actually been beating expectations overall (a lowered expectation, but none the less). I know Starbucks is likely to post record profits and sales AMC.
Overall, with the election coming to a close, people trading over emotionally, and earnings season still here, I see us rallying back up to meet some of these trends we left behind. I'd expect a 30m uptrend without a doubt, and I think we will most likely see a 1hr and 2hr uptrend mark before we head lower at least.
I've noticed that the issue in my trading is that my shorter term sentiment tends to be accurate, but my short term sentiment (where I think we will get at the end of the day) is coming in mid day and then my medium term sentiment (where I think we get by the end of the week) is coming in by the close.
Those sentiments today are;
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bearish
As always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely.
Uwaga
It should be worth noting by the way of the following RSI/MFI readings;30m - Oversold in both
1hr - Oversold in RSI, just came out of Oversold in MFI
2hr - Oversold in RSI
3hr - Oversold in RSI/MFI
4hr - Oversold in MFI and just about oversold in RSI
6hr - Oversold in MFI, fairly close to oversold in RSI
Now, some warning... using MFI below a Daily timeframe in the futures market is, in my opinion, unwise... because it takes changes in volume into account, and there is always a huge volume difference in the US Market Open/Close timeframes. Also, if you have been following, you know how I feel those measurements are a bit unreliable, but... people use them, so they are self fulfilling prophecies.
Uwaga
Side note, Unit Labor Cost will also be important here in a minute. It will show some wage information.Uwaga
Jobless claims are relatively flat. Long term ever so slightly higher, short term ever so slightly lower.Unit cost was an upside though, that labor costs seem to be slowing more than expected. Nonfarm productivity though decreased also, which shows that it is costing more to make a product for companies.
Bit of a mixed signal for today.
Uwaga
BoE is pushing back against further rate hikes in England at the moment. Although that doesn't seem to have much of an affect on US Markets as we continue to trickle lower. Still sitting with 3738. I considered bailing at 3739 but I feel pretty confident we head back up towards 3760 at least.Uwaga
Bailed on my trade when we skimmed up here at 3739. I didn't like that it had just dragged me fairly negative. I'll wait this out for a better entry signUwaga
Went long again here at 3720Uwaga
Bailed on this now at 3722Uwaga
Bleh, I let paranoia get the better of meUwaga
I've gone long at 3730. Definitely missed where I wanted to enter at, but I feel confident about the retracement up at this point. My stop will be around 3720Uwaga
I may just cash out here and take my daily goal of $500 for the day and then see if things begin to make a nicer picture for tomorrow... If we hit 3750, while I think we are headed to back above 3800, I do think I'll take just over $1000 and exit and enjoy some nice weather todayUwaga
I'm out at 3740. $700 day... nice to make a goal by 10:30am. I'll check in later, not sure I'll trade again though
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Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.