ES.IF it keeps on raining, the levee is gonna break!

78
Today was a day where the MM's feasted on expiring options. They burned theta, the flames of which, could be seen for miles. I am not going to get into the nitty gritty of the price action today. Rather, going to take a step back and see what is happening. For the last 4 days we have been range bound. Bottom around the 70 mark and top 96-99. What is more important is that we have built balance from about the 2560 area to the 2600 in the process. The next area of balance comes in between 2460 - 2517. SO from that perspective, below the 2460 area targets the 2620 area which I have been mentioning for a while. Above 2600, we rally have no balance till about the 2637-80 area. I do not know whether we will get there immediately. But i do think a case for the 2625 area is a good bet with possible failure on the first instance around the 2607 -10 mark. OF course, if the move comes on news, then we could head straight up given how neurotic the algos are. My expectation, barring a weekend news cycle is a sell into the open on Monday to the 60 area only to reverse and break the 2600 level. With everyone looking to short this market, it is only providing more fuel. I only say this form what I see on the net. Til Monday. Have a great weekend.

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