Fear Indicators vs. Facts & Figures
Zaktualizowano
In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe
- Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia
- Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe
- Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia
- Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
Uwaga
APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&Ainvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-stocks-shrug-off-global-tensions-and-eye-m-a-474690
Uwaga
Comment: APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earningsinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data,-geopolitical-risks-474631
Uwaga
APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analystChina has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
Uwaga
APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying highUwaga
Open this chart to follow up if fears might fading in the next tradingdays:
Uwaga
Uwaga
APR 13 2017 Poll: Macron taking the Lead, LePen drops to the lowest level since 18 month.23,5% Macron
22,5% LePen
20,0% Fillon
18,5% Melenchon
Uwaga
APR 14 2017: Marine LePen losing more voters23% Macron
22% LePen
20% Fillon
20% Melechon
The French elction now is unpredictable.
Uwaga
APR 14 2017: French presidential race tightens further as vote loomsSource: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN17G0Q2
Uwaga
APR 17 2017: Election is getting more and more unpredictableOpinion Way polls:
22% Macron
22% LePen
21% Fillon
Uwaga
APR 17 2017 - "Le Terrian" poll first time showing LePen only 3rd.24% Macron
22% Melenchon
21,5% LePen
17,5% Fillon
Source for all polls: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Uwaga
APR 18 2017: French Election remains unpredictable. Todays latest polls:Macron 23,5%
LePen 22,5%
Fillon 19,5%
Melenchon 19%.
Risks are now equal both for long and short side.
Uwaga
APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Uwaga
APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.comFrench Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest
Uwaga
APR 24 2017 -Keep your attention to FX volatility, click to open this chart and load new bars:
Uwaga
APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote resultinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease
Uwaga
APR 26 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round twoinvesting.com/news/world-news/le-pen-not-an-option-as-french-far-left-polls-members-on-election-round-two-477426
Uwaga
Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightlyinvesting.com/news/world-news/macron-campaign-for-french-presidency-off-to-slower-start-than-le-pen%3A-poll-477875
Uwaga
Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macronreuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E
Uwaga
Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predictsYouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html
Uwaga
Volatility drop could cause a blow off in European stockmarkets.The UK Election could be the trigger of this blow of. The final results of the French Parlamentary Election could end this momentum by sell the facts.
Uwaga
The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closervox.com/world/2017/6/5/15739222/uk-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-surge
Uwaga
UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-slashes-tory-lead-by-16-points-as-election-race-on-a-knife-edge-a3557681.html
Uwaga
Trump says ahead of former FBI Director Comey's testimony: 'I wish him luck'investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-says-ahead-of-former-fbi-director-comey's-testimony:-'i-wish-him-luck'-492503
Uwaga
General election poll: Tories will fall 22 seats short of a majority, says latest YouGov modelProjection suggests Tories are on course to win 305 seats
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-latest-tories-majority-seats-short-labour-votes-yougov-model-conservatives-a7774961.html
Uwaga
European shares tread water as UK election, Spanish banks in focusinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-tread-water-as-uk-election,-spanish-banks-in-focus-492671
Uwaga
Also to remind - French parlamentary Elections on Sunday:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017
Uwaga
French parliamentary election polls point to Macron landslideFirst-round results for overseas voters have La République En Marche candidates ahead in 10 out of 11 constituencies
theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
Uwaga
Four reasons why the French parliamentary elections mattertheconversation.com/four-reasons-why-the-french-parliamentary-elections-matter-77774
Uwaga
Comment: Comey testifies and the ECB meets: Here’s what could drive the market on Thursdaycnbc.com/2017/06/07/comey-testifies-ecb-meets-what-could-drive-the-market-thursday.html
Uwaga
Updates are incomplete. Sorry about that.Uwaga
Tonight after hours trading anticipating a huge drop in volatility within the next 24-72 hours.Markets should go straight up.
Uwaga
VIX is anticipating a further drop in volatility. This would mean likely the last leg to the upside before a larger consolidation for all global stockmarkets might occur.VIX probably on the path for the lowest numbers in stockmarkets history.
Uwaga
VSTOXX and VIX showing same picture: Final volatility drop should indicate final stockmarket blow off bevor a new downtrend occurs.Zlecenie zamknięto ręcznie
Trade closed. VIX made a new low today not seen since 1993. Same time VSTOXX didn't drop like expected. Trade is closed on profit taking.VSTOXX:
Uwaga
VIX: Today new low not seen since 1993Uwaga
Shortposition was closed in the meantime but not updated here. Additional informations here:
Uwaga
VSTOXX: 20,81% spike to the upside on August 21 2017.
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