Started investing early & hoping to retire? I have bad news...
Zaktualizowano
Alot of people that sheeply followed all the motivators, Warren Buffet included tbh, are going to be pretty disapointed.
So how far can the S&P 500 go?
IF the GDP rise stops slowing down, and all the issues people have ignored (burying their heads in the sand) such as pollution, old people costing more and more, obese people, people getting dumber (it's a real thing), so in other words it won't happen.
But if magically the GDP stopped slowing down.
IF also, in 30 years we happen to be in a bubble the likes of 2000.
THEN, sure, the S&P 500 can reach 10,000 points in 30 years.
So, in the most unrealisticly bullish scenario, the returns will still be far inferior to the past. The technoligical advancements made in the XXth century are the biggest ever made, do the motivational people out there really think we are going to colonize the galaxy in the next decades? That's the magnitude of what it will take to be as bullish.
We went to living in mud traveling by horse and not even having tv to instantly communicating with each other anywhere on the planet, having supermarkets (ye those did not exist 80 years ago), flying planes, driving cars, geez there are so many huge ones.
This will be unrivaled, maybe forever. The gdp increase compare to let's say the roman empire, what is it? 1000 times more? I have no idea but I understand why we went up so much.
Warren Buffet, does he not know this? He just got lucky after all?
Just think of all the changes that happened since 1900. Try to imagine how much would have to be accomplished. What more could happen to increase GDP? Make commute faster?
The technology has advanced so fast people have gotten fat and lazy...
We are also using up earth ressources much faster than we should if you heard...
I would bet all my money on this. I am 100% sure in the next 30 years there won't be any insane bull market like in the XXth century.
It is literally impossible. I do not know if I was clear.
All these things we created, they made the GDP go up. They changed things in a way that can never be beaten.
Going to give an example, it's not great but all I can think of right now: We went from idk let's say 5% office/intellectual jobs 45% agriculture 50% industry (random numbers) to 75% 10% 15%. We cannot make another increase of 70% in office jobs. Max is 100 total. Well, we can, with robots, but... whatever you get what I mean.
We went from going around the world in 80 days at best to a few hours. We cannot make such a leap in the time it takes to go around the world, as time travel is IMPOSSIBLE.
We went from like 5 babies out of 8 dying to 0.01 out of 2... Not much room for progress here...
I'm not super clean in what I say, but I think people that read this understood.
You might have heard that based on historical evidence, you could retire with 1 million $ invested in the stock market (adjusted for inflation) in any 30 years window back in the XXth / most of the XXth century, as long as you only withdrew 30.000/40.000 $ a year.
Well, past performance is not indicative of future performance.
I can even almost guarentee to you that it will not work.
It's like anything that used to work of the masses heard about, simply stops working.
Does not mean investing is not good.
But increases closer to what I think is the "average" of what it normally does (remind me to check prices in the 18th 19th century, as well as greek roman persian japan india etc estimated GDP back centuries ago).
Maybe goes up like in 1870-1920?
That 1930-2000 period. Are you serious? Warren Buffet is a noob lol. All he has seen his whole life is a bull market. He has never tasted anything else than a massive overly bullish market. He has lived when the biggest advances in human history were made. We fly aorund the world in planes are you serious? Man has literally dreamed about this for hundreds of thousands of years. We (well NA EURO OCE Japan) NEVER GO HUNGRY (unless we have shitty parents). We went to the moon!
Let's say we land a man on mars now, so what? Not going to mean much compared to what has been done already...
Mark my words. It's all going to slow down.
So how far can the S&P 500 go?
IF the GDP rise stops slowing down, and all the issues people have ignored (burying their heads in the sand) such as pollution, old people costing more and more, obese people, people getting dumber (it's a real thing), so in other words it won't happen.
But if magically the GDP stopped slowing down.
IF also, in 30 years we happen to be in a bubble the likes of 2000.
THEN, sure, the S&P 500 can reach 10,000 points in 30 years.
So, in the most unrealisticly bullish scenario, the returns will still be far inferior to the past. The technoligical advancements made in the XXth century are the biggest ever made, do the motivational people out there really think we are going to colonize the galaxy in the next decades? That's the magnitude of what it will take to be as bullish.
We went to living in mud traveling by horse and not even having tv to instantly communicating with each other anywhere on the planet, having supermarkets (ye those did not exist 80 years ago), flying planes, driving cars, geez there are so many huge ones.
This will be unrivaled, maybe forever. The gdp increase compare to let's say the roman empire, what is it? 1000 times more? I have no idea but I understand why we went up so much.
Warren Buffet, does he not know this? He just got lucky after all?
Just think of all the changes that happened since 1900. Try to imagine how much would have to be accomplished. What more could happen to increase GDP? Make commute faster?
The technology has advanced so fast people have gotten fat and lazy...
We are also using up earth ressources much faster than we should if you heard...
I would bet all my money on this. I am 100% sure in the next 30 years there won't be any insane bull market like in the XXth century.
It is literally impossible. I do not know if I was clear.
All these things we created, they made the GDP go up. They changed things in a way that can never be beaten.
Going to give an example, it's not great but all I can think of right now: We went from idk let's say 5% office/intellectual jobs 45% agriculture 50% industry (random numbers) to 75% 10% 15%. We cannot make another increase of 70% in office jobs. Max is 100 total. Well, we can, with robots, but... whatever you get what I mean.
We went from going around the world in 80 days at best to a few hours. We cannot make such a leap in the time it takes to go around the world, as time travel is IMPOSSIBLE.
We went from like 5 babies out of 8 dying to 0.01 out of 2... Not much room for progress here...
I'm not super clean in what I say, but I think people that read this understood.
You might have heard that based on historical evidence, you could retire with 1 million $ invested in the stock market (adjusted for inflation) in any 30 years window back in the XXth / most of the XXth century, as long as you only withdrew 30.000/40.000 $ a year.
Well, past performance is not indicative of future performance.
I can even almost guarentee to you that it will not work.
It's like anything that used to work of the masses heard about, simply stops working.
Does not mean investing is not good.
But increases closer to what I think is the "average" of what it normally does (remind me to check prices in the 18th 19th century, as well as greek roman persian japan india etc estimated GDP back centuries ago).
Maybe goes up like in 1870-1920?
That 1930-2000 period. Are you serious? Warren Buffet is a noob lol. All he has seen his whole life is a bull market. He has never tasted anything else than a massive overly bullish market. He has lived when the biggest advances in human history were made. We fly aorund the world in planes are you serious? Man has literally dreamed about this for hundreds of thousands of years. We (well NA EURO OCE Japan) NEVER GO HUNGRY (unless we have shitty parents). We went to the moon!
Let's say we land a man on mars now, so what? Not going to mean much compared to what has been done already...
Mark my words. It's all going to slow down.
Uwaga
We need to consolidate long term and somehow find a way for earth to support 10 billion people, and maybe stop making babies in poor countries yo? There isn't infinite space here there isn't infinite water, isn't infinite arable land.Going to take a whole while... We have went up too fast for our own good.
(If you ask me we have no went too fast it's just that the smartest on the planet have gone at their pace inventing great things and Cletus Brandine over here have a hard time catching up with their 10 babies chemtrail conspiracy videos crypto investments heavy weight on the medical system overconsumption of cheap caloric foods overuse of oil because too lazy to walk & now we have to wait for them, pulling humanity down zzz).
Still, the ones that are good, will be able to make money trading/investing.
There just won't be any billionaire buying and holding and sitting on his ass telling people to "just buy the indice" (no disrespect).
And some other stock markets might have some big gains to make, but the planet in general will slow down.
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