Recovery day is over and uncertainty lies ahead
Thursday was a recovery day after Wednesday's sales. The reasons for the pause were the peak of the earnings season in the US, as well as the US GDP data.
US GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded the average expectations of analysts and amounted to a record 33.1%. However, this figure should not be taken as a sign of the end of the problems in the US and world economies. US GDP is still in the red for the year. Given how the situation with the pandemic is developing, there is practically no chance that the US economy will end 2020 in positive territory.
But China will most likely end the year in plus. But even this victory is very questionable. Because the rate of growth that is expected will be the lowest for China over the last 40 years.
In general, everything is bad everywhere. And the earnings of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, as well as Facebook, which has traditionally exceeded analysts' expectations, should not be taken as a change from recession to growth. The third quarter and the growth of the economy in it are not the merit of the economy as such, but of money injections from the US Government (CARES act) and the US Federal Reserve. The problem is that since August the US has been living without artificial feeding. The question of stimulus is closed before the elections, and what will happen after them is still unknown.
The ECB, as expected, did not change the vector and parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone yesterday. In fact, the decision was postponed to December - expansion of the quantitative easing program or even more radical measures to support the economy are expected. So the euro continues to be under pressure from pandemic news and information about new restrictions.
However, today the euro may receive support from the data on the Eurozone GDP. After yesterday's US data, there is every expectation of exceeding forecasts. But then again, today's data will change little in general. The next month or two (at best), the European economy will suffer heavy losses.
US GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded the average expectations of analysts and amounted to a record 33.1%. However, this figure should not be taken as a sign of the end of the problems in the US and world economies. US GDP is still in the red for the year. Given how the situation with the pandemic is developing, there is practically no chance that the US economy will end 2020 in positive territory.
But China will most likely end the year in plus. But even this victory is very questionable. Because the rate of growth that is expected will be the lowest for China over the last 40 years.
In general, everything is bad everywhere. And the earnings of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, as well as Facebook, which has traditionally exceeded analysts' expectations, should not be taken as a change from recession to growth. The third quarter and the growth of the economy in it are not the merit of the economy as such, but of money injections from the US Government (CARES act) and the US Federal Reserve. The problem is that since August the US has been living without artificial feeding. The question of stimulus is closed before the elections, and what will happen after them is still unknown.
The ECB, as expected, did not change the vector and parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone yesterday. In fact, the decision was postponed to December - expansion of the quantitative easing program or even more radical measures to support the economy are expected. So the euro continues to be under pressure from pandemic news and information about new restrictions.
However, today the euro may receive support from the data on the Eurozone GDP. After yesterday's US data, there is every expectation of exceeding forecasts. But then again, today's data will change little in general. The next month or two (at best), the European economy will suffer heavy losses.
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