Coffee prices have surged to all-time highs near $440, following the post-COVID commodity boom. While most of us love coffee, this rally might soon give us cheaper beans—and a profitable short opportunity.
Why Bearish?
RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI shows strong bearish divergence, signaling momentum exhaustion.
Volume Disparity: Price climbed while volume weakened—a classic reversal setup.
Macro Factors: Brazil’s crop outlook is improving, El Niño impact fading, and global demand softening amid economic uncertainty.
Seasonality: Historically, post-harvest periods see price corrections.
COT Data: Large speculators are trimming long positions, adding to bearish sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $440(recent high).
Support: $290 (first major zone), $160 (long-term trendline).
Trade Setup:
Target: $160 for a potential 57% downside.
Stop-Loss: Above ~$475.
Watch USD strength and commodity indices for confirmation. If the dollar continues to firm, coffee prices could accelerate lower.
Risk/Reward: Attractive for swing traders with patience.
What do you think—are we about to see a major correction in coffee?
Why Bearish?
RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI shows strong bearish divergence, signaling momentum exhaustion.
Volume Disparity: Price climbed while volume weakened—a classic reversal setup.
Macro Factors: Brazil’s crop outlook is improving, El Niño impact fading, and global demand softening amid economic uncertainty.
Seasonality: Historically, post-harvest periods see price corrections.
COT Data: Large speculators are trimming long positions, adding to bearish sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $440(recent high).
Support: $290 (first major zone), $160 (long-term trendline).
Trade Setup:
Target: $160 for a potential 57% downside.
Stop-Loss: Above ~$475.
Watch USD strength and commodity indices for confirmation. If the dollar continues to firm, coffee prices could accelerate lower.
Risk/Reward: Attractive for swing traders with patience.
What do you think—are we about to see a major correction in coffee?
Zlecenie aktywne
Monthly RSI divergence even crazier! Caution is also required as a bullish H&S pattern has emerged alongside a daily cross with the prices holding!
BEAR in mind that the daily MACD has turned negative now too!
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.