#BTC Quick Snapshot Technical and Macro Analysis
Technicals
Mt.Gox moves triggered a mini dump, well more than anything the Mt.Gox funds moved yesterday triggered liquidations which triggered a mini dump.
291m in 12 hours liquidated, spare a thought for the poor guy who lost 11.78m in a single liquidation on Binance.
We said yesterday that we'd go short if the Mt.Gox movements broke us below 65.6k. Those targets still apply (61.5k or the lower edge of the bull market support band and buy order support at 60.8k) although I am going to take some profit out here as price is stalling at 63.9k. If you are looking to short today I'd wait until price breaks below the current support below 63.2k
Positives? Price is in a bullflag so whilst it is grinding down atm we would expect it to break up and out of this set up.
I think we continue this downward trajectory while the Mt.Gox refunds keep making the news with a big relief bounce on completion.
Macro
GDP Growth Rate
2 (Forecast) : Priced In
<2 : Bullish
>2 : Bearish
Traditional finance tanked yesterday losing over a trillion in value. Tesla and Google posted poor quarterlys which undermined market confidence. Without Mt.Gox I think this could actually have been bullish for BTC (providing a good hedge and rising agains the dollar which gets rekt with trad markets via the FEDs holdings).
Theres also a theory that Netanyahu's speech to congress caused the markets to wobble through 'mistrust' but I'm not sure I'm buying that.
ETF Flows
BTC solidifying the fact that MT.Gox probably won't be that bad and that we will recover as despite everything Blackrock added 60m to ibit with 440M in total added to BTC ETFs.
ETH saw a total outflow of 130m. Again no need to panic, this is exactly what we saw post BTC launch with Greyscale seeing huge outflows due to their relatively hgh fees. As with BTC this will slow and the flows will turn positive.
Crypto Conference
Kamala Harris is not attending but there is still a high chance that we dump. I've analysed this phenomenon before here -
TL;DR - Mt. Gox repayments driving a dump. Bullish technicals and continued positive ETF inflows suggest we will recover quickly once the Mt.Gox unload is complete
Mt.Gox moves triggered a mini dump, well more than anything the Mt.Gox funds moved yesterday triggered liquidations which triggered a mini dump.
291m in 12 hours liquidated, spare a thought for the poor guy who lost 11.78m in a single liquidation on Binance.
We said yesterday that we'd go short if the Mt.Gox movements broke us below 65.6k. Those targets still apply (61.5k or the lower edge of the bull market support band and buy order support at 60.8k) although I am going to take some profit out here as price is stalling at 63.9k. If you are looking to short today I'd wait until price breaks below the current support below 63.2k
Positives? Price is in a bullflag so whilst it is grinding down atm we would expect it to break up and out of this set up.
I think we continue this downward trajectory while the Mt.Gox refunds keep making the news with a big relief bounce on completion.
Macro
GDP Growth Rate
2 (Forecast) : Priced In
<2 : Bullish
>2 : Bearish
Traditional finance tanked yesterday losing over a trillion in value. Tesla and Google posted poor quarterlys which undermined market confidence. Without Mt.Gox I think this could actually have been bullish for BTC (providing a good hedge and rising agains the dollar which gets rekt with trad markets via the FEDs holdings).
Theres also a theory that Netanyahu's speech to congress caused the markets to wobble through 'mistrust' but I'm not sure I'm buying that.
ETF Flows
BTC solidifying the fact that MT.Gox probably won't be that bad and that we will recover as despite everything Blackrock added 60m to ibit with 440M in total added to BTC ETFs.
ETH saw a total outflow of 130m. Again no need to panic, this is exactly what we saw post BTC launch with Greyscale seeing huge outflows due to their relatively hgh fees. As with BTC this will slow and the flows will turn positive.
Crypto Conference
Kamala Harris is not attending but there is still a high chance that we dump. I've analysed this phenomenon before here -
TL;DR - Mt. Gox repayments driving a dump. Bullish technicals and continued positive ETF inflows suggest we will recover quickly once the Mt.Gox unload is complete
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