Bitcoin's upward march, can it break $780?
Bitcoin currently has bullish momentum. It is sitting above its 30 day moving average, and the 14 Day RSI is over 50 and has been trending bullish.
Headwinds:
China is currently seeking to crack down on capital outflows of the country. There is a lot of speculation that Chinese buying on a devalued yuan has fueled part of the rally, however if China is to crack down on outflows, this makes it more risky for the Chinese to buy bitcoin, and thus may take some fuel away from the rally. Another headwind may come from the IRS in the United States. Recently they issued a John Doe summons to Coinbase seeking the records of their users. Although it is unclear if this will trigger selling, it may partially discourage new users from buying Bitcoin due to fears they may get caught up in a tax nightmare.
Tailwinds:
Donald Trumps Victory may already be fully priced into Bitcoin, however as more news comes out on his proposals, this may encourage more people to buy Bitcoin as a hedge from protectionist policies.
Segwit: now that is possible for miners to start signaling support for Segwit, we may see some excitement in the price as we near the amount of support needed to begin the process of the softfork.
My Outlook:
My outlook for the next 7-10 days is flat to slightly bullish to mixed signals. However for the long term I am bullish due to the segwit code finally being released, increasing adoption for Bitcoin, and a potential flight to fear assets that may be caused by the rise of populism across the globe.
Headwinds:
China is currently seeking to crack down on capital outflows of the country. There is a lot of speculation that Chinese buying on a devalued yuan has fueled part of the rally, however if China is to crack down on outflows, this makes it more risky for the Chinese to buy bitcoin, and thus may take some fuel away from the rally. Another headwind may come from the IRS in the United States. Recently they issued a John Doe summons to Coinbase seeking the records of their users. Although it is unclear if this will trigger selling, it may partially discourage new users from buying Bitcoin due to fears they may get caught up in a tax nightmare.
Tailwinds:
Donald Trumps Victory may already be fully priced into Bitcoin, however as more news comes out on his proposals, this may encourage more people to buy Bitcoin as a hedge from protectionist policies.
Segwit: now that is possible for miners to start signaling support for Segwit, we may see some excitement in the price as we near the amount of support needed to begin the process of the softfork.
My Outlook:
My outlook for the next 7-10 days is flat to slightly bullish to mixed signals. However for the long term I am bullish due to the segwit code finally being released, increasing adoption for Bitcoin, and a potential flight to fear assets that may be caused by the rise of populism across the globe.
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