Bitcoin at import support, preparing for a long squeeze?
Happy New Year to everyone :) Hope we get a great trading/investing year in 2020.
Just before Christmas i posted a message in my public channel, that IMO it's best to leave the market for what it is. During the holiday's, the traditional markets are always at their worst and i believe that in crypto it has become the same thing. Simply because i believe this market is controlled by professionals and these people take breaks during these periods. My advice was:
My advice, enjoy these holidays with friends and family and come back after again. I don’t think we will miss anything
We were around 7100/200 when i posted it and 8/10 days later we are at the exact same price. The days before Christmas, in the 7100/300 zone, there were some people playing around. Maybe 10/20 moments, maybe even more that we would see a 10 million market sell on Bitmex and then withing minutes we would see 5 to 10 one million buys. It just felt so fake, it became obvious past week would only be about shake outs of short term traders.
Just always keep in mind, this market (and actually almost all the financial markets in the world) are here just to take our money. That is usually always my first approach when looking at a chart: "What would be the sickest way to trap retail money". From that point on i am using TA and start to draw some lines and try to find confirmation. For example trying to find an H&S in the making that is getting prepared to trap traders. Trying to use signs as volume to see if a move is fake or not or looking for other hidden signs.
At the moment, Open Intrest increased a lot today. Went up almost 50 mil, to the highest level in more than i month. Now this seems to be a very bullish sign, but i personally think it's one big trap. It's these F whales trying to trap people. That it's simply wash trading, which means that they are buying and selling to themselves with different accounts, with the result that OI increases a lot.
My long term followers know all the things i have mentioned here on TV. All the whale moves i used to see and mentioned here publicly because i just could not stand how easily they could play around with the inexperienced traders. So instead of keeping the info to myself i simply kept talking about it in the hopes that my followers would not get trapped by those moves again. Problem is, they can continue to keep doing what they do, simply because they have the volumes to do so. But the least we can do is try to make it an effort for them. Try to stay out of traps if we can see them happening.
At the moment we are at the big support again around 7050/100. This level has been tested many times past weeks. So i think that if this level breaks, we might get a big dump. It might even be this sick, that they will let their longs get liquidated on purpose on Bitmex so the price gets pushed down even more. Knowing their shorts will cover these losses and most likely even give them a big profit as well.
Now this doesn't mean their goal is to dump the market to 5k or even lower. That is the big question: Will they do it to crash the market and start a bear trend for the coming months, or is it just to dump price to 6800/6000 and fill up longs to start a bull trend. As you know, my assumption the past 2 months or so, was that we might be making a big bear trap, since we broke the 7800. So far things have been moving to keep that theory alive. For me, anything above 6000ish, keeps the Bear trap alive.
Short term, i think that if 7050/7000 breaks, we will prob get a big drop. Maybe just 6800, but think more likely to see it drop even more, to the 6000/6500 zone. As long as we move below 7250ish, this is the most likely play for me. If 7400ish breaks, i might say bulls are short term in favor.
Previous analysis:
Just before Christmas i posted a message in my public channel, that IMO it's best to leave the market for what it is. During the holiday's, the traditional markets are always at their worst and i believe that in crypto it has become the same thing. Simply because i believe this market is controlled by professionals and these people take breaks during these periods. My advice was:
My advice, enjoy these holidays with friends and family and come back after again. I don’t think we will miss anything
We were around 7100/200 when i posted it and 8/10 days later we are at the exact same price. The days before Christmas, in the 7100/300 zone, there were some people playing around. Maybe 10/20 moments, maybe even more that we would see a 10 million market sell on Bitmex and then withing minutes we would see 5 to 10 one million buys. It just felt so fake, it became obvious past week would only be about shake outs of short term traders.
Just always keep in mind, this market (and actually almost all the financial markets in the world) are here just to take our money. That is usually always my first approach when looking at a chart: "What would be the sickest way to trap retail money". From that point on i am using TA and start to draw some lines and try to find confirmation. For example trying to find an H&S in the making that is getting prepared to trap traders. Trying to use signs as volume to see if a move is fake or not or looking for other hidden signs.
At the moment, Open Intrest increased a lot today. Went up almost 50 mil, to the highest level in more than i month. Now this seems to be a very bullish sign, but i personally think it's one big trap. It's these F whales trying to trap people. That it's simply wash trading, which means that they are buying and selling to themselves with different accounts, with the result that OI increases a lot.
My long term followers know all the things i have mentioned here on TV. All the whale moves i used to see and mentioned here publicly because i just could not stand how easily they could play around with the inexperienced traders. So instead of keeping the info to myself i simply kept talking about it in the hopes that my followers would not get trapped by those moves again. Problem is, they can continue to keep doing what they do, simply because they have the volumes to do so. But the least we can do is try to make it an effort for them. Try to stay out of traps if we can see them happening.
At the moment we are at the big support again around 7050/100. This level has been tested many times past weeks. So i think that if this level breaks, we might get a big dump. It might even be this sick, that they will let their longs get liquidated on purpose on Bitmex so the price gets pushed down even more. Knowing their shorts will cover these losses and most likely even give them a big profit as well.
Now this doesn't mean their goal is to dump the market to 5k or even lower. That is the big question: Will they do it to crash the market and start a bear trend for the coming months, or is it just to dump price to 6800/6000 and fill up longs to start a bull trend. As you know, my assumption the past 2 months or so, was that we might be making a big bear trap, since we broke the 7800. So far things have been moving to keep that theory alive. For me, anything above 6000ish, keeps the Bear trap alive.
Short term, i think that if 7050/7000 breaks, we will prob get a big drop. Maybe just 6800, but think more likely to see it drop even more, to the 6000/6500 zone. As long as we move below 7250ish, this is the most likely play for me. If 7400ish breaks, i might say bulls are short term in favor.
Previous analysis:
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