EW cascading failure, could this be the path to 5k? (part 2)

3 kwi 2018

Things seem to be clearer now as i think i have targets for wave b and c. As i said in the previous idea, i am not interested in going long from a to b or A to B because it's counter trend.

A potential top for wave b is at ~ 7800 (top of pitchfork, local resistance, ~ 0.5 retrace level of wave a) and if that is correct then a potential bottom for wave c could be at the 78.6% extension of wave a at ~ 5600.

I strongly believe in the cascading wave failure scenario that will send us lower than 6k but a break above 7800 with high volume could invalidate this scenario and send us to ~ 8500.

3 kwi 2018

Uwaga

I'm starting to take in consideration a new count in which the correction from 20k until now is only WXY (not WXYZ) and the Y (black circled) instead of being at the low from 06.02.2018 (6k) it will be at a new low that we will create in the near future. This scenario is less bearish than the one from the chart because if the price falls under 6k there will be no wave failure and from an ew pow we will have no reason to go lower and also there will be no reason to not consider the new low as the bottom. In addition to this, the new count has more symmetry. In the chart, the second ABC (in blue) that creates the Y (circled in black) is too small compared to the first ABC.

I will post a new chart if i can find the necessary sub-waves to support this scenario.