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2014 vs 2018 bull trap fractal analysis

Hey gamblers!
In my previous idea, I compared Bitcoin crash speed in 2018 against 2014. It was roughly 1.5x faster in 2018. I used this number to choose the time frame for doing fractal "analysis". The top chart is 2018 in 16h TF and the bottom chart is 2014 in 24h (1.5x16h). 2014 fractals are usually different from 2017-8. But in this case, they look "relatively" similar. Still not the best fractal to compare against, but I have chosen it because they are both formed after breaking out of the down trend channel for the first time. I refer you to the chart to make your own judgment.

I am still 60/40 bearish/bullish and holding 25% of my positions. I have given the probabilities (based on my gut) on whether this rally is a bull trap or not. The higher we go, the probability diminishes (you can follow it up to above 20k on the chart).

As I have clearly declared, I am new to this game and almost illiterate in TA with no experience whatsoever. I strongly advice you to not trade based on this idea.

Please give a like if you like.

/ Monkey :D Ruffy

This is the image version of the above chart:

Uwaga

Here is a revision of the chart.

$2014 vs 2018 bull trap fractal analysis: revised$

Uwaga

We are getting close to our target. If we break through the red resistance area, this fractal will be invalidated. Keep an open mind for both bearish and bullish scenarios and trade based on signals you get at key points.

Uwaga

Longs on Bitfinex are up by 3k since 4 am UTC, price range of 9050 to 9650. If we see a bear attack, it will be brutal. I am still holding my positions.

Uwaga

The first target is reached. Hope you made a good profit so far. We are at a crucial decision point now. It can go either way. My fingers on the trigger!

Uwaga

That was the worst play I have seen from the whales recently.

Uwaga

We are all gonna die. A scary fractal, failed breakout, double topish, and now a regular bearish divergence. We will definitely die ... one day!

OK, jokes aside, I am still holding. I know it's stupid but I am stupid. My fingers are on the trigger though.

The regular bearish divergence is not complete yet, we should wait for the next candle(s) close. On RSI it is normal in overbought zones because RSI is range bound. On MACD, we haven't topped just yet. Still, it's not a good sign. This divergence was engineered as I wrote in my previous update.

Uwaga

RSI divergence is confirmed on 12h TF. It should be taken with a grain of salt as I said before. I am closing some more. I have taken profit with 80% of my positions hence I can risk with the rest.

Uwaga

IMHO, retracing below 9.4k would be really bad for the bulls. Longs on Bitfinex are up by 5.5k since 9100. Order book on the buy side don't look strong. Any bear attack will squeeze the longs and can take us to 9k and even lower in no time.

Chart for the divergence:

Uwaga

So the daily closed and now we have a regular bearish divergence on RSI on the daily TF. It is not in the overbought zone so it's a legit divergence. Still, bears have not been able to push the price down. Order book is totally controlled by the bull composite. It looks like they don't want to let the price drop below 9500. I asked some of those who know Wyckoff on TV chat and they believe that whales are re-accumulating. I personally don't know what they are doing (I wrote a bit about how this could also be a distribution phase on the revised version). I am still holding what I have left (20%). If I see Bitcoin breaking out, I will double my position.

Uwaga

What an exciting day! There is a new bearish divergences on 1h TF but it seems that market doesn't care ... so far!

This blue line seem to be doing something ... for now

To avoiding spamming your inbox, I have posted couple of updates on the revised version.

Safe trading :)

Uwaga

Another candle closed. So far we are following the green arrow. However, as long as we are in the red area, I will stay alert. The last drop was not a good sign for bulls. The volume on the red candle was 1.5k. Price has recovered but with significantly lower volume. There is a hidden bullish divergence in small time frames. As I am writing this, we are seeing the effect of it, up move. Overall, I am not convinced until we break 10k.

Uwaga

Just woke up to see this large red candle. I was right to be suspicious of last night's up move. I posted a new overlay chart a few days ago on the revised chart's page. I used it for predicting the decision points. Now it looks like to be working for price action as well. I don't want to scare you, just want you to stay alert if you have positions open. I closed some of mine last night and re-entered at a lower price. I will close them again if it keeps going down.

On 12h chart, we see a beautiful evening star pattern. It's bearish. If market follows the chart, we should see acceleration down.

onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/EveningStar.html

Uwaga

Forgot to tell you that 12h candle has not closed so the evening star pattern is not confirmed yet.

Uwaga

Just a heads up before daily/weekly candle close. They may pull off the same trick as May 3rd's candle close. Stay extremely alert. I am ready for shorting this market. Waiting for a signal. I repeat, waiting for a SIGNAL. Still have some alts left in my bag to unload.

This chart and its first update deserves more views:

Uwaga

I hope I stopped you from getting reked last night, and the day before when everyone was expecting moon. If so, don't forget to like :)

All the previous predictions worked well so far. Daily bearish div, yesterday's evening star and my analyses based on Bitfinex trade history and order book. We are again out of the pitchfork. This time, I don't see us going back in any time soon, and possibly never. Short term trend IMHO is bearish. We are now following the yellow arrow and I think it is possible to reach its target (see the revised version).

I dumped most of my alts last night (except some EOS and Stellar) and shorted BTC and ETH, took partial profit on both already. I will add to my shorts if I see that bounces are weak. I am 65%/35% bearish/bullish. Keeping a close eye on bounces and potential bullish reversal but my overall view on the market is depicted on the revised chart.

Also, thanks to those of you who are leaving comments and giving me feedback.

Uwaga

Bitcoin is looking weak atm. 9.2k should hold or BTC ded!

Uwaga

... and now it is ded. They kept the price above the support until 12h candle close. This is definitely chart painting. It is the 3rd time I am reporting throughout in this idea.

Uwaga

A wedge is painted. It usually breaks upward. They are pushing the market up by putting huge buy walls (6k BTC from 8700 to 9100) on Bitfinex. It can go as high as 9400. I am looking more at the red zone and the FIb line inside it.

I should also mention that a guy who has quite accurate calls has a target of 9700 and above 10k. So far the market is weak but Spoofy is always powerful and can surprise us.

Uwaga

Just to add, their push is not working so far so the wedge can also break down ward. Watch for wedge's support and resistance line for initiating trade.

Uwaga

So the wedge broke upward as expected. The red line in the above chart is holding it for now but I expect it to break. On 4h TF, a morning star candle pattern is developing (not closed yet) which suggests upward movement. I will change my targets depending on the momentum.

onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/MorningStar.html

Uwaga

The last 2 hourly candles closed just below the aforementioned Fib line (23.6% @9278). I am taking partial profit here. I don't know where BTC is heading next so that's the safest option for now.

Uwaga

Another 4h candle closed green but not so impressive. BTC has been trapped in the red zone for more than 4 hours. A 655 BTC buy order @9254 is definitely telling the herd to go up. Prolly one more leg up.

Important lines and res zones in the chart. If I see a weak leg up, will start shorting again.

Uwaga

So the buy wall is gone. Chance of going down without a leg up is higher now. Stay alert!

Uwaga

If we go back into the red zone especially below 9278, then I will start shorting again.

Uwaga

4h candle just closed as a bearish pin. It closed above the support so it's weight for shorting is reduced. I'll wait for more signals. Going to bed now, watch out for another daily candle close trick.

Uwaga

yooooo hoooooo

I hope u all enjoying the ride :D

Look at how many times 9390 stopped, it is the black line in the last chart!

Uwaga

I usually don't speak with confidence. But this time I am speaking with 99.9999% confidence. This whole shit is a nasty game. Those mothaxxx who pumped this shit are dumping it on the herd. I hope u exited on time. They played the daily candle game again. Kept the price above 9k and broke the support immediately after daily candle close. Don't think this is bear vs bull fight. Bears shorting this market lost it on April 12 and did not return to the market since then. Now, there is only one team ruling and they are doing whatever they want to. Of course as long as they see profit in it. I am expecting a decent bounce from somewhere between 8.6k and 8.8k. I will be closing my shorts starting from 8.8k. My SL is 9.1k but it can change depending on how market plays.

Congratz to those who shorted on time and sincerely sorry for those who lost money.

Uwaga

A new pitchfork for the down trend. My short closing area and stop loss plus too many Fib lines :D

The bottom green median line of pitchfork is a potential place for closing shorts and opening long and the top green line for vice versa. As long as we are in the pitchfork, including the outer two lines, the trend is bearish.

Uwaga

There is again a huge buy wall on Bfx. The previous one broke easily because it was most likely wash trading. This one is much bigger but it can still break if it is a fake one. Look at buy vol and divergence, as well as price bottoming (higher lows and double bottoms, etc). In that case, you may want to start taking partial profit or going long. This will be my last update for a while.

Safe trading :D

Uwaga

Just woke up to this huge dump. That was another fake wall broken. We almost reached the target of the yellow arrow. Sell volume increasing, and I don't see a legit divergence yet (there is a bullish div on 1h TF in the RSI oversold zone, but that's normal). The target of the red arrow is on the table now. We may or may not bounce before getting there. Price is now finding support above the falling wedge's resistance line. I am waiting for a clear reversal signal. Market looks really weak (ie, Spoofy is selling). 8175 was Point of Control since Dec, and I will open some long positions there if we drop that low. Price gravitates toward PoC so even if we drop below it, it will come back above it sooner or later.

Longs and shorts have not changed significantly. 6k longs opened above 9100. I've been waiting for a long squeeze since 10k drop which never happened. We may see a bounce after those longs are squeezed.

Uwaga

Forgot to update the Fib lines, the purple ones will be invalid if we drop below 8659.

Uwaga

MACD (and RSI) divergence on 1h TF. Price bounced from the lowest line of Pitchfork. Sell vol on 4h TF is still higher than 20 MA but decreasing and buy vol is still low. RSI on 4h is oversold. I posted an update on my half-baked theory re divergence of BTC and Alts coins which can also indicate reversal. So a lot of mixed signals there and I don't know where the price is going at this point. I am closing my shorts here to be on the safe side. I may re-open them or may go long depending on market moves. I am not gonna post more updates if I can :)

Safe trading :)

Uwaga

Just realized that in the log chart, we did not close below the lowest line of Pitchfork. The green line is now acting as a resistance.

Uwaga

A friend just sent this to me. It's an idea that confirms this bull trap. As I marked in the revised version, I still think (25%) that BTC can break 10K. If the market can't recover until the end of Consensus event, then we r all gonna die.

Uwaga

This is my last update, this time for real.

Watch for breakout of the triangle both up and down:

Uwaga

Daily candle just closed as a doji reflecting the indecision in the market. The triangle breakout is not convincing yet. It only made a bigger triangle. As long as we don't make higher highs, there is a possibility of sell off continuation.

I thought I had to share this with you before going to bed to complement my previous update.

Safe trading :)

Uwaga

I am glad that I did not post new updates here because this chart, tho old, worked with good accuracy. Price realigned with the red arrow and hit it's target again. I couldn't do better than this. I don't want to make further predictions here because market manipulation is at high level. This fractal analysis helped us for the last 2 weeks and that's more than enough to get from a TA.

I found a guy on TV chat who was making very accurate calls. I tracked his 4 calls which hit targets with more than 99% accuracy. Hist last call was pullback to 8446 and then hitting 9.3k which did not happen and we fell far lower. I went with his call and got reked. I know that it is stupid, but it is not easy to resist that accuracy. My initial target for the pull back was 8900ish as you can see in the following charts. I did not post it here because it conflicted with that guy's prediction. He still has 9.3k as his first target and 9.8k as his second target. I will not be swing trading for a while. Instead I will scalp to get the best deal. I still can't go against his call.

As I am writing this, BTC is going down again.

Uwaga

Hey guys,

I am working on a new idea. Just wanted to show u where I am so far. To avoid too many "if"s, I am waiting for the wedge break out or break down so that I can place the second wedge target or H&S target on the chart.

Bullish signals:
- Many regular and hidden divergences on RSI and MACD on different TFs
- Falling wedge
- Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), stronk supports still holding

Bearish signals:
- Market sentiment
- Bulls failure to break 10k leading to a double top
- Having all MAs above us
- Scary 2014 fractal

Overall, market is more bearish than bullish. If the small wedge breaks out, there is no guarantee for breaking the bigger wedge. Even if the big wedge breaks out it can fail to reach its target and downtrend can continue. In general, I don't expect momentum to increase on bullish side until we miraculously break 10k (miracles happen in Crypto as it did on Apr 12th), but if price closes below 7.7k on 4h and especially daily, I expect bearish momentum to increase. We might even see a parabolic crash like in early Feb.

Crucial moments for Cyrpto my friends, April triangle. Moon or doom will be decided soon.

Uwaga

Correction: Crucial moments for Cyrpto my friends, like the April triangle. Moon or doom will be decided soon.

Uwaga

So finally the small wedge broke out. It's target is around 8.6k. We might have a stop at the top of the big wedge first.

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