Bull trap confirmed! What's next?

24 maj 2018

Hello fellow gamblers!

... insert 10 pages of bragging here ...

Here comes my Illuminati Fib extension set that will predict the future with 1000% accuracy :D

Back to business. This is a continuation of my previous bull trap fractal analysis. Now it's leveled up with Fib extensions. As you can see, we have been following 2014 bull trap with a good approximation so far. Check the bounce levels on fib lines to compare the two bull traps.

I spent a huge amount of time to create this chart. It is still a work in progress. This one is in log scale, I will publish the next version in linear scale when completed. I will explain the fractal more in the next one. And you know how to make me work faster :D

Here is the previous version which was a really good call.

Strictly not a trading advice. It's my observation of the past. HISTORY DOES NOT ALWAYS REPEAT.

Safe trading
/:D

24 maj 2018

Uwaga

You can zoom in the chart by dragging the scale. Fib extensions go as far down as 2k. It doesn't mean that we will go there but in Crypto everything can happen. 2014 bottom was around Fib 2.272. For 2018 it is around 3k.

24 maj 2018

Uwaga

Here are possible scenarios for the triangle case I mentioned in the previous updates in the "Wedge in wedge fractal" TA. If the triangle support holds and we bounce as far up to the top, this fractal will be invalidated. Triangle base can be drawn differently depending on the exchange.

PS: I promised to post a completed version of this TA in linear scale. But it seems that you haven't liked it. So this will be my last update for a while.

24 maj 2018

Uwaga

A better view

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

I received a comment that this chart is not easy to understand. I hope this update makes it a bit more clear. IF (big IF) the 2014 parallel plays out, we are now in the blue zone and should be heading down.

Note that on the daily TF, 200 Smoothed moving average is a good match between two periods. My friend @Giorgioversace's last update got me to check the similarity of that indicator between the two periods.


I will try to post simpler charts next times. Thanks for your feedback again.

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

Candles look like may 9th on 4h TF.

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

That was spot on. Please don't assume that it is gonna repeat all the way down. It may or may not. I am gonna close some shorts if we reach the triangle base. See the interactive chart for alternative triangle bases drawn based on different exchange.

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

I just looked at some of the top TAs. A lot of the TAs r suggesting a buy at the triangle base even those who think bearish long term. I am expecting a surprise!

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

Take a look at Bitfinex in 1 min. Some things r really fishy. Same pattern happened couple of times since 10k fall before each drop. Just an observation, not a trade advice or prediction.

Stay alert!

25 maj 2018

Uwaga

I am still working on the linear chart. I have found some interesting stuff, one I can't wait to share. Around June 6 we will see a reversal point (can't say up or down cause I don't know what will happen until then). I will share the chart with you when I am done. This is just a prediction based on Fib fans and circles goes all the way back to 2013 high.

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

We have a new local uptrend that has been respected so far. In this triangle, what worries me is that price is not able to touch the top. It is unable to lift off the base of the triangle.

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

Alts r going up. BTC might follow.

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

Again we r seeing extreme pump and dumps like the ones few days back. We were first in a bear pennant. Then it turned into a bear flag and broke downward.

The local downtrend line is broken. The pennant is pierced so far. The scenarios (arcs) followed through to some extent but none reached their target. I made them using previous price actions. With too much manipulation (perhaps related to CME futures), FUD (US probe into price manipulation, some related to Bitfinex), I have no idea what's coming next. If we stay inside the pennant, it can break down. Else, we might see similar price actions to the highlighted area in the chart. The targets of the curvy arcs are my targets for opening short positions. If I see bullish momentum increasing, will cancel opening shorts.

I am also moving big portion of my money from Bitfinex back to Kraken. I don't feel safe keeping them at Bitfinex.

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

Interesting analysis from my friend Giorgioversace

"I will leave this archive wide open for you Joes, in case we have incoming new bubbles in the future. This works in 12h charts. Pure coincidence? You decide, and do whatever you want with it.
Enjoy."

26 maj 2018

Uwaga

So they did repeat the previous bear pennant to bear flag to break down pattern I mentioned previously but in a smaller scale. Same nasty pump and dumps. Price is now trapped between three important lines. If we drop below the orange line, I expect that price won't close major TFs below one of the 3 green lines shown in interactive chart before providing a good bounce. The triangle base should hold because that's bull's last chance to save the market. I may be wrong tho.

I hope u did not get trapped by the last micro bull trap.

27 maj 2018

Uwaga

Market looks weak at the moment and BTC broke below the orange uptrend line. I finally reached my target for closing shorts at 0.786. I am now looking for a reversal signal for opening longs. If the last triangle base line (around 7k as of now) doesn't hold, look for support in the lower yellows zone in the interactive chart. 2014 equivalent for reversal is around 6.8k.

On a side note, Fib 0.618 (orange) that acted as resistance, is the retrace for BTC's entire rally, from 0 to 20k.

27 maj 2018

Uwaga

I wrote to Bleek in the comments 3 days ago:

"I think 6k is not a good support anymore. If we go below 6.5k, it means we r making lower low and that is bearish. Bulls best chance to avoid disaster is the giant triangle. if it breaks, I think we will have a decent bounce around 6.5k to 6.6k. perhaps up to 8.6kish. then we will go back down and break all the major supports."

This TA makes similar conclusions. Not the big IF.

28 maj 2018

Uwaga

We bounced off the first green line but market still looks weak. Some of you might be wondering why I am not giving you immediate term updates. The reason is that market is again in one of those make or break moments. Indicators are not very reliable at this stage as it is proven in recent days. We are slowly going down despite market being oversold. Bulls are not able to make higher highs.