BTC/USDT NEXT 2-3 WEEKS GAME PLAN 30.09.2024
Zaktualizowano
Bitcoin/USD Analysis Update 🪙📉
In our previous outlook, we emphasized the importance of waiting for a clear directional move. Today, we witnessed a breakdown of the bullish trendline that had been holding for the last 24 days, signaling a potential start of a larger bearish structure. I took advantage of the initial breakdown with a quick short trade and am now focusing on positioning for the next major wave.
Current Market Outlook: Bearish 📉
Based on the Elliott Wave Theory (EW) and additional confirmations, it is evident that the trend is bearish on the swing-term (7 days and beyond). Currently, we are in a mini wave 3 of the first larger wave from the recent top. While it's not yet certain whether this is wave 1 or wave A, the upcoming move should clarify the structure. In either scenario, we can expect a strong wave 3 or wave C to unfold, potentially offering lucrative short opportunities.
The accompanying chart outlines my projected path for BTC over the next 14–18 days. The roadmap should help visualize the expected movements, showing key targets where I anticipate the price to reach.
Wave Analysis & Strategy:
Currently, the price is moving in what appears to be the first wave of a new downtrend. If this scenario holds, the initial target for this wave is set between $62,350 and $61,888, where I expect wave 1 to complete.
Once this target zone is hit, I anticipate a pullback to the $64,000–$65,000 range. This pullback will form either wave 2 or wave B, presenting an opportunity to re-enter the short side. My strategy here is to look for short entries around this level, with the invalidation level set at $66,200. If the price reaches this point, it would signal a potential shift in structure, and I would re-evaluate my bearish bias.
Projected Outcomes:
If we are in wave 3, the next major target would be around $59,000 or potentially much lower, depending on the momentum and overall strength of the sell-off.
If this structure turns out to be wave C, then the move might not go below $61,000–$60,000. The reaction at this level will be critical for determining whether we are in a corrective wave or a more aggressive decline.
Impulsive Move Scenario:
In case this is an impulsive move with a 5-wave structure, it could lead to a more extended downtrend. In this scenario, the main target for the entire downward move is between $57,800 and $56,000. After reaching this zone, I expect a 10-day consolidation period before a significant drop towards the $44,000–$40,000 range. This would mark the completion of a larger degree wave, setting up for a potential medium-term recovery.
Key Levels to Monitor:
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
In our previous outlook, we emphasized the importance of waiting for a clear directional move. Today, we witnessed a breakdown of the bullish trendline that had been holding for the last 24 days, signaling a potential start of a larger bearish structure. I took advantage of the initial breakdown with a quick short trade and am now focusing on positioning for the next major wave.
Current Market Outlook: Bearish 📉
Based on the Elliott Wave Theory (EW) and additional confirmations, it is evident that the trend is bearish on the swing-term (7 days and beyond). Currently, we are in a mini wave 3 of the first larger wave from the recent top. While it's not yet certain whether this is wave 1 or wave A, the upcoming move should clarify the structure. In either scenario, we can expect a strong wave 3 or wave C to unfold, potentially offering lucrative short opportunities.
The accompanying chart outlines my projected path for BTC over the next 14–18 days. The roadmap should help visualize the expected movements, showing key targets where I anticipate the price to reach.
Wave Analysis & Strategy:
Currently, the price is moving in what appears to be the first wave of a new downtrend. If this scenario holds, the initial target for this wave is set between $62,350 and $61,888, where I expect wave 1 to complete.
Once this target zone is hit, I anticipate a pullback to the $64,000–$65,000 range. This pullback will form either wave 2 or wave B, presenting an opportunity to re-enter the short side. My strategy here is to look for short entries around this level, with the invalidation level set at $66,200. If the price reaches this point, it would signal a potential shift in structure, and I would re-evaluate my bearish bias.
Projected Outcomes:
- Wave 3 Scenario:
If we are in wave 3, the next major target would be around $59,000 or potentially much lower, depending on the momentum and overall strength of the sell-off.
- Wave C Scenario:
If this structure turns out to be wave C, then the move might not go below $61,000–$60,000. The reaction at this level will be critical for determining whether we are in a corrective wave or a more aggressive decline.
Impulsive Move Scenario:
In case this is an impulsive move with a 5-wave structure, it could lead to a more extended downtrend. In this scenario, the main target for the entire downward move is between $57,800 and $56,000. After reaching this zone, I expect a 10-day consolidation period before a significant drop towards the $44,000–$40,000 range. This would mark the completion of a larger degree wave, setting up for a potential medium-term recovery.
Key Levels to Monitor:
- Wave 1 Target: $62,350 – $61,888
- Wave 2/B Pullback Zone: $64,000 – $65,000
- Wave 3 Target: $59,000
- Wave C Target: $61,000 – $60,000
- Final Impulsive Target: $57,800 – $56,000
- Long-term Target: $44,000 – $40,000
- Invalidation Level: $66,200
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
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