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BTC Analysis based on Block frame and halving

Zaktualizowano

this is not financial advise just my thought about BTC treatment .

i think its more helpful we check fractal or trend line base on block frame .

since BTC network created we experienced 2 halving .
i showed 2+1 halving time with vertical pink line.
3 period mentioned in chart :

First era - 1419 days from beginning to the first halving (28-11-2012) that include CPU, GPU and FPGA mining
Second era- 1319 days (28-11-2012 to 09-07-2016) in the early of the 2013 we faced to ASIC miners started with 2 TH , 16 nm chip developed in mid 2015
Third era- estimate to be 1417 days ( 09-07-2016 to 26-05-2020 !!!) ( refer to the website bitcoinblockhalf.com/) 16 nm chip (last ASIC technology) released in 2017-May-31

whenever Bitmain company released new devices we see new rally for example :

a- Gen 1 55 nm chip Nov 2011 price increased
b- Gen 2 28 nm Apr 2014
c- Gen 3 28 nm semi-custom sep 2014
d- Gen 4 28 nm full custom aug 2015 , price increased
e- Antminer s9 16 nm full-custom may 2017 price increased

i expect to see new power full miner devices in next 3 month .

continue ...

Uwaga

i checked BTC network speed when the price was same as now 6348 $ almost 7 month ago. BTC had 8 EH/s network speed and today it have 40.17 EH/s.
during last 7 month (40,800 blocks ) network speed increased 32 EH which means 32,000,000 TH/s
if we divide above number to 14 TH/s for each formal BTC mining machine we can estimate that 2,285,714 Antminers join to the BTC networks.
i assumed each devices cost 800$ so we found that 1,828,571,428 $ invest to the BTC networks since 7 month ago. total BTC market cap (according to the coin market cap) 109,067,873,386$

1828571428/6370=287,059 BTC cost for mining 40,800 BLK

i did below calculation to find how far it profitable for miner :

40800 BLK *12.5 blk RW = 510,000 BTC == so ==> 1828571428/510000 = 3585 $

i think lowest price for BTC without any additional cost such as cooling, mining fee, device faulty, power cost,... can be 3585 $
-------------------------------
consideration :
a- formal and newest mining machine is antminer s9 with 14 TH/s and it cost near 800 $
b-

Uwaga

if we add power cost calculation :

if we have 222 days from the beginning we have
2285714 S9 i Aantminers * 5328 hours * 1.320 KWh ( each device power usage ) * ( 0.05 /KWh = 803,766,756 $
total cost = device cost + power cost = 1,828,571,428 + 803,766,756 = 2,632,338,184 $

BTC price estimation for device cost and power cost: 5161 $

Uwaga

i checked and compare RSI chart for 2nd vs 3rd era in below graph:

i used WXYXZ just for showing chart similarity .

each rsi charts divided into two parts , yellow section and blue section
yellow section in both chart follows exactly each other with 3x factor in time axis.

i thought second part ( Blue WXYXZ ) will follow same pattern with factor lower than 1x in time axis .

i prefer to choose lower than one factors because we have not seen any new commercial ASIC chip since mid 2015

Uwaga

update

Uwaga

update

MSHLFX

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