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Execute Order 666: BTCUSD The Final Collapse - Inflection Point

Here we continue the saga of the FTX fallout. Another dominoe in the collapse is falling. Bitcoin has broken a 4 hour momentum channel which appears to be the next leg to lower lows.
This is the Daily version, since the 1 hour chart will not play for very long.

Execute Order 666: BTCUSD The Final Collapse

4 Hour Channel:

Bitcoin Liquid Index Gann Square & EW Count

Uwaga

I imagine if we don't breakdown at this point today, then it could draw out and consolidate near the 18k level for a few weeks before deciding to head down.
Else we can watch for a potential bullish reversal. The CPI print suggest inflation is slowing, and a 25bps increase in interest might cause markets to push up a final time. (with bitcoin following) It's all BS though. The only thing good for the markets is a significant reduction in interest rates. Inflation is at an uncontrollable point (huge amount of money has been printed and is already out there slowly working the economy so that is can get the best advantage on prices) and interest on the debt is ludicrously large meaning taxes will have to increase. The fed putting debt on its balance sheet is simply delaying the inevitable. The dollar cannot be saved the markets are fully leveraged and anything could pop this debt bubble and start hyperinflation.
Sound currency is the best, but bitcoin is like tulips. It does well in a inflationary, but growing market. A stagflationary market is horrible for bitcoin unless it can pay the bills and hold its value well. A gold backed digital currecy will rise and likely the chinese will develope it, competing currencies will fight for global domination and whomever is in control of it becomes king of the nwo.

The government of currency is the most powerful government.

This is not financial advice.

Uwaga

And what a bull trap.

1 hour has formed a momentum shift, top/

Uwaga

4 hour is headed to retest the bottom of the channel after rejecting the top.

Uwaga

Seems they're going to continue to shrink the markets to protect the dollar and keep demand low by continuing to raise interest rates by 50bps

Explains the blow off top instead of consolidating.

Uwaga

4 hour channel is breaking down again:

Uwaga

The hour found a temporary bottom, hopefully it either consolidates or heads down lower from here to confirm the channel breakdown on the 4 hour inflection point.

Uwaga

4 hour channel looks like it's about confirmed. Expecting price to build downward momentum and start heading down quickly. Consolidation isn't ideal, I want to see some action.

Uwaga

potential momentum shift on the 4 hour is forming, sometimes these continue to breakdown and start to move pretty quickly. If it starts consolidating, then I will look for a retest of 18k.

Uwaga

signs of a momentum shift on the hourly chart, may result in a restest of the previous highs.

looking for the next daily candle 19-20 hours to close bullish for this play out.

a rejection here would be a disaster for bitcoin.

Uwaga

every 4 hour candle closed below the previous daily close.
not looking good for the bulls.

Uwaga

you know some times being this good is scary.

Uwaga

alright that looks like the last move, momentum is shifting back down, good chance for price to reverse trend here.

Uwaga

If you zoom out of my chart; you can see I've been waiting for a retrace for a while, I pointed out two TZ's transient zones that were created on the way down, these are potential targets for a retrace and reversal back down. lets say bitcoin heads back to 25-30k; this makes sense since fed intervention should prevent a sudden collapse; so prospects may allow price to retrace for 3-5 months, and at some point head back down before the rest of the markets.

Amazingly FTX has come up with some money that was stolen from investors, so will have to see how this all plays out.

Anyways, this is just an opinion and should not be construed as financial advice.

Uwaga

Price momentum is pretty strong, so if it were to move up it wouldn't be surprizing.
there are some potential shifts back down; and the TZ's just created will at least provide and entry to ride this to 25k and look for the shift back down in that range.

Uwaga

otherwise sometimes bitcoin just does bitcoin and reverses suddenly and unexpectedly

Uwaga

The 15 min is showing a potential shift back down; if that holds, then the 4 hour's shift might play out, meaning the start of the next bearish leg down.

Uwaga

The 4 hour had a fairly decent sell signal, momentum shift.

Going to watch and see if it plays out, but this maybe when things start to finally get some momentum.

Else I'm watching for a reversal at the transient zones created on the way down.

Uwaga

Right on the cusp the verge the edge of breaking out. Will this play out?

this might finally be the reversal, or atleast a decent retrace.

Uwaga

We didn't break down on the 24th, but we rejected a breakout. The momentum shift is still in play, and I've been watching the 15min and made a prediction like 6 hours ago.

So if we can get a little momentum downward we'll retest 18k.

Uwaga

So here is the 1 hour, price lost a significant amount of momtenum, I think its more likely to swing and retest 18k before trying to test 24-25k. If it carries through 18k with lots of downward momentum, then we're starting the next large leg down.

Uwaga

I like it.

Uwaga

slight possibility it could tap the 25k level, but it likely will hit the 18k transient zones, in a rotation zone right now.

Uwaga

The daily is starting to breakdown, but the 1 hour is trying to find a bottom. If it consolidates, then thats good for the bulls. For the bears I want to see a breakout breakdown in this zone.

Uwaga

So I checked out the bitcoin/gold chart to see if the transient zone targets hold up on a chart that is not skewed by inflation. What I outlined is some low targets formed 7-9 years ago, and found that a few of the zones the 25k target is not a transient zone on the gold chart. There is a small zone that on a large timeframe doesn't hold up. Around the 30k level. So, the primary transient zones are below the current price level.
These zones are areas where price briefly traveled and did not return.
Price action is mostly recurrent, as in it passes back and fourth in an area and never really leaving bars alone, price gets boxed into areas where large traders continulously bet at two price levels and bounce price between the two and trade others out of thier positions.

Uwaga

the blue line was a transient zone, the 13k-15k area on the usd chart. On the daily usd chart, the 18-19.2k area is still a target, maybe it will reverse and retest the iffy upper transient zone.

Uwaga

So bearish targets are as low as .94 oz xau to 2.55 oz xau or 1500-5000 USD

Uwaga

Oh yeah, how could I forget to provide an updated 2 hr usd chart

it broke down within 1-2 hours of my call for the bearish breakdown.

Uwaga

daily breakdown

Uwaga

I updated all the transient zones with the latest info posted here and a few more details.

I like the big break on the daily, and I expect a decent amount of follow through with consolidation being likely before it decides to go lower.

If it breaks with a lot of momentum, then the larger transient zones on the monthly charts come into play, I expect 5-10k soon, then eventually 1500-5k.

Uwaga

I made an alternative count in orange, with my original in yellow.

Uwaga

This momentum shift appears to be a very strong signal with multiple timeframes.
The reversal here marks the elimination of the final TZ remaining from the bear leg the past 6-12mos.

Now the primary TZ's other than the Top, are below current prices.

Now there is still a chance for a reversal at these TZ's to create a final "5th wave" for bitcoins macro price structure.

I still think fundamentals wont allow for this leg, and a poor economy and failing dollar will lead to people putting thier money into more important items. As thier purchasing power will be absent for the most part. I can imagine something like mexico where the dollar loses significant value overnight, if a "bail in" occurs there wont be individuals able to even buy bitcoin. If you can sell it, you might have to in over to cover soaring food prices.

World leaders, the wealthy, how much interest do they really have in bitcoin when governments create thier own currencies; chinas working on gold backed digital currency, how can bitcoin compete? Especially since the government(s) has a motivation to control currency, and regulate competition out of existence

If there is a new global currency; central banks would not allow something to replace thier power structure unless they can or do control it, and thusly incorporate it into thier system and negating the original purpose of bitcoin.

The government of governments is money.

This is not financial advice.

Uwaga

Now that's a nice looking bar. Mmmmm.

Uwaga

Just a little further :)

Uwaga

Alright well bitcoin managed another leg up to 30k and hit some key levels.
Now that those targets are hit; bitcoin is still in a reversal zone and isn't in bull territory yet.
Gold is pulling back, the market is pulling back and the fed isn't dovish quite yet.
The dollar is being abandoned, so demand for dollars will implode and they will come rushing back to the united states. However that may take a while to play out. So at least in the mean time during this "recession" bitcoin will drop back down and retest some lower levels.

If there is a large amount of momentum, then another bearish leg will start.

Uwaga

I currently see gold and oil rising- doubling in price...

However I doubt bitcoin is going to follow... not untill there is no gold for sale...

Send It.

Uwaga

wait for the other shoe to drop

Uwaga

BTCUSD - Potential Daily Inflection Point

Mikhiavelli

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