BTC — Bitcoin: Macro x ETFs x Hashrate → Real Flow, Real Volatil

3 wrz

⭐️ BTC — Bitcoin: Macro x ETFs x Hashrate → Real Flow, Real Volatility
Buy/Hold bias long term; short-term: correction likely in September (seasonality), with bear target ≈ $88,000 in my playbook.

🔥 Latest headlines (spot check)

🔸BTC back near $111K as risk assets bounce to start September.
🔸Hashrate sets a fresh record (~1 zettahash/s 7-day avg); a >7% difficulty hike is expected within days. Network is the strongest ever, but miner margins tighten.
🔸U.S. spot BTC ETFs show renewed net inflows (e.g., +$333M on Sep 2 across funds). Flows remain a key daily demand gauge.
🔸MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) bought more BTC last week (~4,4k coins; holdings ≈ 636.5k BTC)—ongoing corporate bid.
🔸Europe angle: a Winklevoss-backed bitcoin treasury firm plans an Amsterdam listing, signaling appetite for listed BTC exposure in the EU.

🗓 Near-term event & data catalysts (September)

🔸Fri, Sep 5 — U.S. Jobs (NFP, Aug) at 08:30 ET. Labor softness would bolster rate-cut odds and risk appetite; a beat could do the opposite.
🔸Wed, Sep 11 — U.S. CPI (Aug) at 08:30 ET. Inflation surprise drives real-rate expectations → BTC beta.
🔸Tue–Wed, Sep 16–17 — FOMC + press conference. Policy path & dot plot = macro volatility for BTC.

Fri, Sep 26 — Options/Derivs expiry:
• Deribit monthly BTC options expire 08:00 UTC (last Friday rule).
• CME Bitcoin monthly options settle Sep 26 as well.
These expiries often amplify gamma flows and spot-vol.

Early Sept — Next difficulty adjustment likely >7% up (tightens miner economics short-term).
Medium-dated overhang
Mt. Gox creditor deadline: Oct 31, 2025. Any schedule/details update could swing “supply overhang” narratives.

📈 Flows & on-chain/market structure
🔸ETF flows remain the cleanest real-time demand proxy; watch daily creations/redemptions. 🔸Sustained positives tend to align with spot strength; outsized outflows can weigh on price.
🔸Network health is stellar (ATH hashrate), but rising difficulty + a softer tape can pressure high-cost miners → potential miner selling into weakness.
🔸Corporate treasuries (e.g., Strategy/MSTR) keep adding on dips—bullish signal for supply absorption on red days.

🧠 Seasonality & tone check
September is historically a weak month for BTC (average ~−3% to −4% since 2013), which fits the current “pullback/mean-revert” setup.

📣 Social/flow buzz (signals, not noise)
🔸ETF flow posts (Farside, Bloomberg desks) are getting traction again—watch after U.S. close for prints.
🔸Saylor/Strategy buying headlines keep the “corporate bid” narrative front-and-center.

🧭 Levels & plan (author’s framework)

🔸Bias: Long-term constructive; near-term: correction mode likely extends through September (seasonality + event risk).
🔸Bear target: $88,000 (where I’d expect volatility to attract responsive buyers).
🔸Invalidation for bears (tactical): A strong reclaim/close above ~$113K–$115K with improving 🔸ETF inflows would weaken the pullback thesis.
🔸Sizing: Respect macro data days (NFP/CPI/Fed) and options expiry week—expect higher realized vol.

🗺 What to watch next (checklist)
🔸Daily U.S. spot BTC ETF flows (post-close updates). Momentum if creations persist; caution on redemptions clusters.
🔸Sep 5 — NFP (Aug) 08:30 ET. Risk-on if soft; risk-off if hot.
🔸Sep 11 — CPI (Aug) 08:30 ET. Headline/core surprises steer the FOMC tone.
🔸Sep 16–17 — FOMC + presser. Watch guidance on cuts, balance sheet, and growth.
🔸Sep 26 — Deribit & CME monthly expiries. Positioning/“max pain” dynamics into that Friday.
Difficulty adjustment (early Sept). If >7% up as projected, monitor miner behavior/sell pressure.

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📢 Market Update – September 5, 2025 (Friday close)

🧰 Macro driver of the day:
🧾 U.S. jobs miss + rising Fed-cut odds

NFP rose +22k and unemployment ticked to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut at the Sept 17 FOMC. U.S. stocks faded to finish modestly lower on the day. FX wrap: “Gold up $41 to $3,586 — fresh record high; CHF led, CAD lagged” into the North American close.

🥇 Gold – Record run, strong weekly close

Intraday spiked to a fresh ATH (NY) after the jobs miss; spot gold printed a session high near $3,600.90. Friday 5:00pm ET close: $3,585.30/oz.

💶 EUR/USD – Pop above 1.17 on USD slip
Intraday: ripped to ~1.1750–1.1760 after NFP.
Friday close (5:05pm ET): 1.1720 (+0.59% d/d).
💴 USD/JPY – Yen bid on yields lower
Intraday low pressed into the mid-146s as U.S. yields fell.
Friday close (5:05pm ET): 147.40 (−0.73% d/d).
💷 GBP/USD – Steady grind higher
Friday close (5:05pm ET): 1.3510 (+0.56% d/d).
🇨🇭 USD/CHF – CHF strongest major
Friday close (5:05pm ET): 0.7981 (−0.92% d/d).
💵 Dollar gauges – Broad pressure
DXY slipped back below 98 during the session; WSJ Dollar Index finished the week at 95.06 (down for a fifth straight week).
📉 U.S. equities – Soft finish
S&P 500 −0.3%, Dow −0.5%, Nasdaq marginally lower on Friday as growth worries outweighed rate-cut optimism.

📊 Friday closing board (5:00–5:05pm ET)

Gold (Spot): $3,585.30/oz

EUR/USD: 1.1720 | USD/JPY: 147.40 | GBP/USD: 1.3510 | USD/CHF: 0.7981

🧠 Key Takeaway:

A soft labor print + falling yields ignited safe-haven flows into gold and broad USD selling into the Friday close. Volatility stays elevated into next week’s inflation prints and the Sept 17 Fed meeting—size positions conservatively and pre-define risk.

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