BTCUSD analysis: roller-coaster is going on
Dear friends,
I’m going to update my Bitcoin trading ideas in this post. As you know, I’m actively testing different Gann’s tools, from those that have already become the classics of technical analysis, to those, which have basically nothing in common with technical analysis. Today, I’m going to apply them to the BTCUSD analysis.
You can see the forecast dated December 20 in the chart above.
In the above chart, there is the current market situation. As you see, the BTCUSD ticker has reached the marked target a little earlier than I suggested. First of all, it can be explained by the buyers’ support, due to which the local correction, I had expected, just didn’t occur in the needed time. However, it is developing at the moment, which doesn’t correspond to the scenario published last week.
Obviously, the forecast for Bitcoin price in future must be corrected. But, first, I need to update Gann levels.
First of all, it is about new solar cycle that began on December 21. It was the longest night of the year, and the day is gradually getting longer. The vernal equinox will be on March 20. That is the time frame I will operate on for the long-term forecast.
I want to not in the beginning that this analysis will be a little against the rules because, according to Gann, for the long-term perspective, I should analyze the levels from the previous cycle of the equinox-solstice up to the next.
This time, as an experiment, I’ll try to identify the levels within the next cycle equinox-solstice.
I’ll make all the calculations in the same way according to the classical methodology.
I described how to it in detail in the first educational post, devoted to the Square of 9; so, I won’t to repeat myself in this article.
In the previous cycle since equinox till solstice (from 23.09.2018 to 21.12.2018), I identified the critical points that I marked on the Square of 9. I will draw Gann key levels up to March 20.
Finally, an excellent object for the marked points is a decagon, turned 11 degrees down. So, on the protractors, there are two global dates – January 19 and February 24. Others dates go beyond the time frame of the forecast. Gann angle is 83 degrees, as this line meets the most of critical points and is surrounded by such points next to it. On the lines, met by critical points, I mark the squares that correspond to the analyzed period with yellow. These lines are of 07.01, 15.01, 28.01, 21.02, 03.03, 18.03.
I mark these global and long-term levels with purple to distinguish them from other levels.
Next, I identify the price levels for long-term analysis. To do it, I mark the low and the high during the studied period. They are 3122.28 USD and 6792.28 USD.
Now, based on the known to you formula, I’ll figure out the increment for the Square of 9. It is 40.77 USD.
I will also mark the price levels identified with purple. I have the following values:
1287, 2225, 2836, 3407, 4019, 4956, 6220 USD (see the chart above)
I marked the values obtained in my previous BTCUSD price chart, where I applied the previous Gann levels of Square of 9. It is be interesting to see which levels will be more accurate. Whether they will be the levels, I have figured out with the recently finished solar phase, or the ones, I identified in the phase before the last.
Basically, the more recent levels should be more accurate that the ones, identified in the previous period. Time will show if it is really so.
Now, I’ll do the same to figure out the middle-term levels for the next week.
I’ll take the period with the last extremes for analysis.
In the chart above, they are marked with the vertical red lined. In this period, I can right away see the low and the high to calculate the increment for the cell of the Square of 9. Next, I follow exactly the instruction I wrote myself in the third educational post devoted to Gann.
Finally, in the chart above, there is a grid of horizontal and vertical lines, whose crossings are critical pivot points or potential support/resistance levels
I attach the obtained levels together with the levels of the Moon declination to the main BTCUSD price chart. You see that the closest resistance level that can provide a momentum movement starts at 11:00 on December 27 and ends at 7:00 on December 29 Moscow time. I marked this section because it coincides with the north declination of the moon.
I suggest using common tools of technical analysis to identify the momentum direction.
In the chart above, there is all-round market view of the upper level; from left to right, there are monthly, weekly and daily timeframes for the BTCUSD pair.
In the monthly timeframe of Bitcoin price chart, there is a bearish trend and the fifths candlestick in the sellers setup, according to TD Sequential indicator. It means that the bearish trend should end perfectly when there are another four candlesticks of this order to close nine candlesticks of a perfect setup.
The paradox is that this ideal setup can be complete even if the market goes to the levels as high as 6544 USD. It is because the setup continues if its high (in the sellers’ setup) is lower than the fourth previous candlestick. You see that the high of the candlestick 4 is around 6544 USD; therefore, the candlestick eight will remain in the bearish setup if it is at least a cent lower than this level. So, there are three full months and 1 week of December to see a bullish correction in the bearish market. However, I don’t expect the correction to go up to 6544 USD. Bitcoin price will hardly rise higher than 5747 USD. That is where Keltner channel’s middle line that is a serious obstacle for bulls.
As it is clear from the weekly chart of BTCUSD pair, the past week closed rather positively, having drawn a long white candlestick. TD Sequential indicator has drawn number one after the bearish setup. The growth was supported with good volumes, and there is a strong support from buyers. The market is afraid of going down. The potential in the weekly chart is quite clear. The lowest target is the high of the candle on November 26 at about 4409 USD. The highest target is the middle of Keltner channel at about 5403 USD.
The current BTCUSD daily situation shows developing of the bearish setup. Oscillators is slowly rounding, suggesting going down for a slight correction. You see that the previous correction stopped at about 50% of the past bullish wave. If I consider the recent Bitcoin growth as a part of a new bullish fractal model, and the current element – as the emerging Origin, the price may go even lower, around Fibo level 0.232. The same level is suggested by the local volume profile; so, the bears may drive the price down to this level.
In the bitcoindollar price chart above, you see a new pattern that I have been watching for quite a long time. It looks like a Head and Shoulders, only with a double top. Of course, it can be referred to a harmonic pattern like Harley; but most often, the target are reached at the distance between the peak and the neck of the head that is higher. The target profit should be measured from the high of the right shoulder. This pattern perfectly matches the Gann levels that I’ve marked; and the target is exactly in the zone 3419 USD. The correction is going on accurately inside the zone of Gann fan; it is another confirmation. When the BTCUSD rate reaches the support level, I expect it to consolidate and move to a new fan zone, where bulls should have more space for moving. So, I suggest there will be a new wave of the BTC bullish correction; but that’s a story for the next analysis.
That is my BTCUSD global scenario for the nearest future. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the trader blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
PS. If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. Would you feel that this bottom is a good level to invest in bitcoin today for the long term prospects? Let me know your opinion in comments also.
If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
I’m going to update my Bitcoin trading ideas in this post. As you know, I’m actively testing different Gann’s tools, from those that have already become the classics of technical analysis, to those, which have basically nothing in common with technical analysis. Today, I’m going to apply them to the BTCUSD analysis.
You can see the forecast dated December 20 in the chart above.
In the above chart, there is the current market situation. As you see, the BTCUSD ticker has reached the marked target a little earlier than I suggested. First of all, it can be explained by the buyers’ support, due to which the local correction, I had expected, just didn’t occur in the needed time. However, it is developing at the moment, which doesn’t correspond to the scenario published last week.
Obviously, the forecast for Bitcoin price in future must be corrected. But, first, I need to update Gann levels.
First of all, it is about new solar cycle that began on December 21. It was the longest night of the year, and the day is gradually getting longer. The vernal equinox will be on March 20. That is the time frame I will operate on for the long-term forecast.
I want to not in the beginning that this analysis will be a little against the rules because, according to Gann, for the long-term perspective, I should analyze the levels from the previous cycle of the equinox-solstice up to the next.
This time, as an experiment, I’ll try to identify the levels within the next cycle equinox-solstice.
I’ll make all the calculations in the same way according to the classical methodology.
I described how to it in detail in the first educational post, devoted to the Square of 9; so, I won’t to repeat myself in this article.
In the previous cycle since equinox till solstice (from 23.09.2018 to 21.12.2018), I identified the critical points that I marked on the Square of 9. I will draw Gann key levels up to March 20.
Finally, an excellent object for the marked points is a decagon, turned 11 degrees down. So, on the protractors, there are two global dates – January 19 and February 24. Others dates go beyond the time frame of the forecast. Gann angle is 83 degrees, as this line meets the most of critical points and is surrounded by such points next to it. On the lines, met by critical points, I mark the squares that correspond to the analyzed period with yellow. These lines are of 07.01, 15.01, 28.01, 21.02, 03.03, 18.03.
I mark these global and long-term levels with purple to distinguish them from other levels.
Next, I identify the price levels for long-term analysis. To do it, I mark the low and the high during the studied period. They are 3122.28 USD and 6792.28 USD.
Now, based on the known to you formula, I’ll figure out the increment for the Square of 9. It is 40.77 USD.
I will also mark the price levels identified with purple. I have the following values:
1287, 2225, 2836, 3407, 4019, 4956, 6220 USD (see the chart above)
I marked the values obtained in my previous BTCUSD price chart, where I applied the previous Gann levels of Square of 9. It is be interesting to see which levels will be more accurate. Whether they will be the levels, I have figured out with the recently finished solar phase, or the ones, I identified in the phase before the last.
Basically, the more recent levels should be more accurate that the ones, identified in the previous period. Time will show if it is really so.
Now, I’ll do the same to figure out the middle-term levels for the next week.
I’ll take the period with the last extremes for analysis.
In the chart above, they are marked with the vertical red lined. In this period, I can right away see the low and the high to calculate the increment for the cell of the Square of 9. Next, I follow exactly the instruction I wrote myself in the third educational post devoted to Gann.
Finally, in the chart above, there is a grid of horizontal and vertical lines, whose crossings are critical pivot points or potential support/resistance levels
I attach the obtained levels together with the levels of the Moon declination to the main BTCUSD price chart. You see that the closest resistance level that can provide a momentum movement starts at 11:00 on December 27 and ends at 7:00 on December 29 Moscow time. I marked this section because it coincides with the north declination of the moon.
I suggest using common tools of technical analysis to identify the momentum direction.
In the chart above, there is all-round market view of the upper level; from left to right, there are monthly, weekly and daily timeframes for the BTCUSD pair.
In the monthly timeframe of Bitcoin price chart, there is a bearish trend and the fifths candlestick in the sellers setup, according to TD Sequential indicator. It means that the bearish trend should end perfectly when there are another four candlesticks of this order to close nine candlesticks of a perfect setup.
The paradox is that this ideal setup can be complete even if the market goes to the levels as high as 6544 USD. It is because the setup continues if its high (in the sellers’ setup) is lower than the fourth previous candlestick. You see that the high of the candlestick 4 is around 6544 USD; therefore, the candlestick eight will remain in the bearish setup if it is at least a cent lower than this level. So, there are three full months and 1 week of December to see a bullish correction in the bearish market. However, I don’t expect the correction to go up to 6544 USD. Bitcoin price will hardly rise higher than 5747 USD. That is where Keltner channel’s middle line that is a serious obstacle for bulls.
As it is clear from the weekly chart of BTCUSD pair, the past week closed rather positively, having drawn a long white candlestick. TD Sequential indicator has drawn number one after the bearish setup. The growth was supported with good volumes, and there is a strong support from buyers. The market is afraid of going down. The potential in the weekly chart is quite clear. The lowest target is the high of the candle on November 26 at about 4409 USD. The highest target is the middle of Keltner channel at about 5403 USD.
The current BTCUSD daily situation shows developing of the bearish setup. Oscillators is slowly rounding, suggesting going down for a slight correction. You see that the previous correction stopped at about 50% of the past bullish wave. If I consider the recent Bitcoin growth as a part of a new bullish fractal model, and the current element – as the emerging Origin, the price may go even lower, around Fibo level 0.232. The same level is suggested by the local volume profile; so, the bears may drive the price down to this level.
In the bitcoindollar price chart above, you see a new pattern that I have been watching for quite a long time. It looks like a Head and Shoulders, only with a double top. Of course, it can be referred to a harmonic pattern like Harley; but most often, the target are reached at the distance between the peak and the neck of the head that is higher. The target profit should be measured from the high of the right shoulder. This pattern perfectly matches the Gann levels that I’ve marked; and the target is exactly in the zone 3419 USD. The correction is going on accurately inside the zone of Gann fan; it is another confirmation. When the BTCUSD rate reaches the support level, I expect it to consolidate and move to a new fan zone, where bulls should have more space for moving. So, I suggest there will be a new wave of the BTC bullish correction; but that’s a story for the next analysis.
That is my BTCUSD global scenario for the nearest future. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the trader blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
PS. If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. Would you feel that this bottom is a good level to invest in bitcoin today for the long term prospects? Let me know your opinion in comments also.
If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
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