Surf Blog - BTC

10 sie 2023

BTCUSD: 29562

Surfing blog for my own trades and ad hoc comments on BTC.

12 sie 2023

Uwaga

BTCUSD: $29402

Techncials:
1. Neither the 1wk or 1d MACD shows signs of life

Fundamentals:
1. Its a long time before halving (mid-late April 2024)
2. Ark BTC ETF dumped by SEC (of course)

Analysis:
1. Doing nothing since the exit in May
2. Will keep updating sometimes to show I'm still alive

14 sie 2023

Uwaga

BTCUSD: $29408
State of the Market Note

Yesterday (13 Aug), Goldman analysts predicted rate cuts coming in only in 2Q2024, and even that, there was no urgency to cut rates because there would not be any recession.

This is completely understandable and would exactly be what i'd say which means rates would be really sticky, and worse, there would always be a risk of a rate increase if inflation rears its head again. But would that happen? No one knows.

At this time, even though we have predictions of a soft landing, I am wondering if one of 2 things would happen: 1. a recession occurs bad, like the one which happened exactly 4 yrs ago. 2. an invisible hand wanted to supercharge the economy ahead of the elections.

In any case, we need to be very careful given the opportunity costs of choosing risk over the current delicious risk free money market rates. There could yet be another rate hike in September. For that reason, it will be difficult for me to justify a long position just yet.

Analysis:
1. no change, looking for a long entry somewhere in April 2024
2. a lot will happen to the economy between now and April

businesstimes.com.sg/international/goldman-pencils-first-us-fed-rate-cut-second-quarter-2024

18 sie 2023

Uwaga

BTC: $26433

Technicals:
1. Finally, the long expected the dump after daily MACD could not reach new highs after 3 tries
2. Fractals are still pointing to 22k levels by the end of the year

Fundamentals:
1. Nothing much, usual noise and din which we need to keep well away from

Analysis:
1. no change, still staying out as the dumping continues, with a long entry somewhere at halving in April 2024.

Chart:
t.ly/7182I

2 wrz 2023

Uwaga

BTC: $25761

Technicals:
1. No change

Fundamentals:
1. No change. Stay away from incessant noise.

Analysis:
1. No change. Watch Mar-April 2024.