Will Bitcoin Moon First in December?

2 gru 2021

Abandoning the possibility that BTC.D (the Bitcoin Dominance) was in only the first decline of mimicking the three rapidly successive declines pattern from 2017 as posited in my prior idea Bitcoin will moon first before altcoins, which is linked below this idea.

Instead it appears as though the first H1 2021 decline is a melding of the two distinct declines from ~H1 2017. Thus I am only expecting one more decline before this current bull market tops as has been explained in my recent ideas Bitcoin Bull Market Ends Dec. 28 at 350k (note: more likely Feb. 2022 at 221k) and Bitcoin Price Scenarios Into Posited February 2022 Pi Cycle Top, which are also linked below this idea.

Will BTC.D spike up now into end of December as it did in December 2021, before declining to a lower-low during the typical Jan-Feb altcoin season?

As for the posited bull market peak in Feb, remember my VIX chart in March 2020 is March 2022 is warning of a crash in March 2022.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

To attempt to answer this question, let’s analyze some major altcoin charts as priced in BTC.

Is ADABTC going to decline into the last week of December as it did in 2020? The pattern seems to be nearly identical.



The chart above displays log-scaled Fibonacci retracement levels and is as diagrammed positing a decline to the 38.2% level. If change to linearly scaled then we see the recent decline hit the 61.8% retracement level, so the decline could possibly have completed.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

If ADABTC declines to between 0.000022 to 0.000024 whilst BTC rises to the $75000 by roughly December 26 as I posited in a recently published idea, ADAUSD would remain range bound $1.65 – 1.80. That’s exactly what ADAUSD did pattern-wise in December 2020 — the pattern is very similar to the current one.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Before I add my analysis of ETHBTC, let me suggest reading the MarketWatch article The Nasdaq and the Dow are now trading in a way that was evident just before the internet bubble burst.

“Sessions with one major stock index closing higher while another finishes lower have become more frequent, and that doesn’t reflect a healthy market”

Markets are fretting over potential for renewed lockdowns due to (alleged but I think they’re intentionally fabricated fiction—I’ll blog in scientific detail about that not on TradingView) viral variants, U.S. Fed QE tapering and the potential for U.S. Congress to not avert a government funding and debt ceiling extension.

Buy the FUD dips. The people of this world are fed up with lockdowns and fighting back. The variants may cause the Fed to slow down or at least be cautious in its statements about QE tapering acceleration.

The markets typically see a parabolic blow-off top before the crash. I advise watching Game of Trades latest videos.

What will cause the posited March 2022 crash? Will the variant FUD scare be over and the Fed is aggressively tapering? Will China’s Evergreen default causing some liquidity domino effect contagion, i.e. the Butterfly Effect or a spark in a tinder box of dried hay? Remember the pendulum experiment from Chaos Theory demonstrates that minute changes in initial conditions can result in radically different outcomes. So although they tell us that Evergreen contagion would be contained to China (although crypto market’s very important stable coin TetherUSD may be holding Chinese paper), what condition are EU economies in and is their banking system liquidity finally ready to blow up?

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Also suggest Alessio Rastani’s video Dow BREAKS Key Level... Could This Trigger a Bear Market?. He explains that he thinks this is only a correction and not yet the start of a bear market.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Seems most people are uber bullish on Ethereum right now. And they identify what they think is a breakout on the ETHBTC chart:

However I have a different, possible interpretation. It’s possible that ETHBTC is trapped for the moment in a wedge and needs to come back down one more time to test one of the supports.

Even though ETHBTC is much more bullish than in December 2020, note that it did rally in November 2020 only decline anew in December 2020.

I had diagrammed the following chart a few hours ago before the decline started for today, and had already wanted to suggest it would decline. I see a decline is underway by the time I made the following snapshot.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

I annotated this ETHBTC chart weeks ago.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Note that when BTCUSD rebounded sharply from the correction to 41K on Sep 30 to 56k by Oct 6, that ETHBTC declined until week of Oct 11. The other example where Bitcoin was first out of the starting gate was December 2020. In both of those instances ETHBTC bottomed after Bitcoin made its initial significant up move and paused.

Whereas coming off Bitcoin‘s 29K correction bottom on July 19, ETHBTC had also bottomed and Ethereum was leading out of starting gate. But ETHBTC has broken out of a major multiyear rising broadening wedge before the May correction, so it was itching to run. And all the metrics were pointing to BTC being oversold, so Ethereum was viewed as highly undervalued in that context. On the sharp rebound from correction to ~40k, Bitcoin was viewed as more undervalued than Ethereum and the market tends to want to see Bitcoin make a new ATH before altcoins make their run. And I think we’re in that situation again with Bitcoin dropped below even the peak in May, IMO Bitcoin has to make the first move out of the starting gate to a new ATH.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

If ADABTC is going to skyrocket again (in Jan and Feb 2022) as it did from fourth week of December 2020 to third week of February 2021, will it rally only to the top of the Cup and then decline forming a Cup & Handle? Or will it blast through the Cup as I have diagrammed?

If Bitcoin is about to launch to a ~221k Pi Cycle top by Feb 2022 with ADABTC posited to skyrocket to between 0.00007 – 0.00012, the ADAUSD price could rise into the $15 – $26 range, which is what I had projected on one of my prior ideas which is displayed above.

I have repeated the ADABTC chart again below so you don’t need to scroll up to find it.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Ethereum may be poised to hit 25K by February if Bitcoin is going to hit 221k.

Remember I have the following two ideas supporting my recently firming conviction that Bitcoin is about to make a massive bullish move.

For the second chart above, I prefer readers pay attention to the corrected version of the chart which is more coherent, congruent and easier to understand:

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

This idea of 2013’s second bull phase after the initial top in April 2013 is not a new concept to me. I have been positing it since 2019! Here follows my Oct 23 idea about it.

2 gru 2021

Uwaga

Another idea reaffirming that Bitcoin is about to make a parabolic move up.

The preferred interpretation: